Stock Market Sell Signals Reinforcing Projected Sell-off into ~April 19th (Date of Aggression).
03/28/24 – “Stock Indexes have fulfilled 1 – 2 year upside price targets in recent weeks, indicating their advances (since late-2022) are living on borrowed time. The attainment of upside objectives does not immediately signal a top or trigger a reversal lower but does show a market has completed all that was projected/expected for this move…
As discussed in recent weeks, individual stocks are showing wide divergence with a few key stocks (like NVDA and other AI-related stocks) carrying the recent advances. However, there is growing disparity even in the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks – reinforcing this divergence. 3 of those 7 stocks set their highest weekly closes in Dec ’23 or Jan ’24.
In the case of NVDA – another stock viewed as a ‘proxy’ for potential turning points in the market – it created a pair of range trading targets after bottoming near 110 in October 2022 and then setting a secondary low near 390 in October 2023.
That range (~280) projected future range-trading parameters at 670 and again at 950 – a major upside objective.
NVDA surged above 670 and then pulled back to it – setting a higher low at 662 (intraday) – 674 (low daily close) on February 21st. That retest of a breakout level – resistance turned into support – projected a new surge to ~950, which was recently fulfilled.
That February 21st low (662/674) also created a corresponding Intermediate LLH at ~950… which was ultimately tested as NVDA attacked its extreme upside target for 2024 (yearly LHR).
That stock has vacillated since reaching its upside targets but would not turn negative – on an intermediate basis – until a daily close below 840. It was projected to set a subsequent high on March 25th… which was just fulfilled as NVDA set its highest daily close at 950.02!
At the same time, the NQ-100 has traded sideways after surging into late-February ’24 – the fulfillment of an ongoing ~2-month/~60-degree cycle… and setting its highest daily close on March 1st – one day after that ~2-month cycle peak…
At the same time, the Russell 2000 and S+P Midcap 400 are playing catch-up… A high in the first half of April 2024 would fulfill a ~14.5-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the S+P Midcap 400 – connecting peaks in Sept ’20, Nov ’21, Feb ’23 and April 2024.
That index is the last to fulfill its 1 – 2 year upside price targets, currently attacking those objectives:
3-06-24 – “If it is able to spike up to 3003 – 3034/IDX, the S+P Midcap would complete a rally from its October ’23 low that is 1.618 times the magnitude of the preceding decline… and reach the intermediate LLH created by its October ’23 and January ’24 lows… 2980 – 3045/IDX is also where monthly resistance and the Intra-Month PLLR for March 2024 exist.”
Stock indexes are also entering a unique (natural) period of time…
The Natural Year ‘Opening Range’
The first month of the Natural Year – from March 20/21 until April 19/20 – has an oversized impact on key markets during specific years. 2024 is set up to be one of them!
That first ‘month’ leads into the Date of Aggression – a time that has had a sometimes-devastating impact on America and the globe. It is often a time of increased conflict or attacks – usually linked to corroborating cycles. INSIIDE Track has detailed that correlation for over two decades.
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In 2024, that period of time is expected to lead to extremes in some markets… and surprising events in the surrounding environment. (2025 could be more extreme!)
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders can begin to lighten up on long positions in anticipation of a sizeable correction. The remaining upside potential appears very limited as the downside risk/potential is increasing significantly. The Weekly Re-Lay will update changes and signals in the shorter-term trends.”
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes attacked multi-year upside targets and are topping as they transition into a new Natural Year. The first ‘month’ of the Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times significant shifts that influence the remainder of that Natural Year. In 2024, that period is projected to time an initial sell-off in equity markets, likely accelerating to the downside in mid-April.
That also aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression – April 19th… the culmination of this transition period. The key will be what occurs during that (projected) decline, particularly with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point (and an initial low).
The action leading into April 19th is expected to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to a related time frame not long after (when the culmination of a second sell-off is projected). AI-related stocks are reinforcing this. NVDA just attacked its multi-month upside target near 950… and could see a sharp correction into April 19th… and potentially beyond (if one key indicator turns negative by/on April 19th). Its first downside target is 750 – 765/NVDA.
What Would Trigger a Stock Market Sell-off into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.