Stock Markets Portend July/August Sell-off in S+P 500 & NQ-100; When is High Most Likely?
07/03/24 – “Stock indexes remain mixed with the potential for a new sell-off in July. Before addressing what appears most likely for the coming weeks, it is important to deal with what has not unfolded in line with expectations… and what it may reveal about the future.
The most obvious is the growing disparity between the stronger indexes (S+P 500 & NQ-100) and the weaker ones (DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400).
The DJIA has traded relatively sideways for the past ~4 months – creating a slight expanding triangle with brief spike highs & brief spike lows during each subsequent swing. It has alternated its allegiance to the weaker and sometimes the stronger indexes.
Leading into 2024, the stronger indexes were forecast to trade in a similar pattern as 2007 – the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle – and to a lesser degree, the intra-year pattern of 2018 (linked to the 2-Year Cycle).
In both cases, the year would begin with initial highs but those indexes were expected to set higher highs in the second half of the year (potentially stretching their final peaks into October 2024 in line with the Oct 2007 & Oct 2018 peaks). That remains the outlook…
This has allowed the S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 to mirror the intra-year movement of 2007 even closer.
During that year, those indexes set mid-year highs in July ’07 and then sold off into August ’07. That was followed by rallies back to the highs – into October 2007. it is now more likely these stronger indexes will follow that path.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are moving toward decisive peaks projected for July & October 2024, in sync with overall 17-Year Cycle analysis and parallels. The NQ-100 is reinforcing expectations for similarities to 2007, in line with the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks (successive highs in 1Q ‘24, July ‘24, and then October ’24 projected). Several timing indicators project a critical top for July 2024!
A key ‘proxy’ or ‘cue’ stock (a stock that often gives advanced signs of shifts in a broader market) fulfilled a (multi-month) peak projected for June 17 – 21st at/near 140.0/NVDA. It is already pinpointing primary multi-month downside targets (below 100.0/NVDA)… that would involve a serious sell-off in this and other tech stocks leading into August ‘24.
Will NQ-100 Peak by Mid-July… and begin a similar descent? Watch 17-Year Cycle!
How Does Recent Peak in ‘Proxy Stock’ Reinforce Outlook for 3Q ’24 Decline?
Why Does 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast Pivotal NQ + SP 500 Highs for July 2024?
Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Stagflation) Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.