Stocks Accelerating into Projected Bottom; 17-Year Cycle Sell-off Nearing Fulfillment (Watch April 3 – 7th!).
04/03/25 – “Stock Indices have fulfilled a decisive objective that powerfully validates their 2025 outlook – setting new intra-year lows during the month of April. That also reinforces future cycles converging in July 2025.
On a near-term basis, stocks reversed lower on March 26th – after fulfilling a convergence of intermediate cycles that included a ~17-week/~4-month high-high-high-(high; Mar 24 – 28) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of an over-over-arching ~35-week/~8-month high-high-high-(high; Nov 25 – 29, ‘24) Cycle Progression – and dove into month end.
That was reinforced by the DJIA bouncing right to its multi-week upside target at 42,801 – 42,907/DJIA (50% rebound, weekly LHR, weekly 21 Low MAC & weekly 2CR) with most indexes bouncing to their declining daily 21 High MACs and reversing lower – projecting one more decline before an intermediate low could become more likely.
The magnitude of those cycle highs – fulfilled on March 25/26th – indicate they should hold at least 2 – 3 weeks (but that does not preclude a rally back to those levels during that time frame).
After dropping into month-end, stock indexes rebounded to weekly resistance levels to begin this week – peaking mid-week and preparing for the announcement of massive trade tariffs.
That cycle & indicator combination reinforced the potential for a final spike low in early-April… From a wave perspective, these new lows have also fulfilled the minimum targets for wave ‘5’ declines in the S+P Midcap 400, Russell 2000 & DJTA… by dropping below their wave ‘3’ lows of mid-March ’25. That also identifies the late-March ’25 highs as the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ resistance (and target) for the next intermediate rally.
There is another telling aspect of the late-March ’25 highs.
As wave ‘4’ peaks sometimes do, they created important HHL (downside) objectives for this wave ‘5’ decline. That is a simple calculation that measures the price distance between the preceding (late-Jan or late-Feb ’25) highs and those late-March ’25 highs…
There is another aspect to that downside target in the S+P Midcap 400 (and the DJTA), which also warrants repeating since it is close to being fulfilled. It involves the more extreme downside target for an April ’25 low in that index. To repeat from the March 2025 INSIIDE Track:
2-28-25 – “2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020)…
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two…
Déjà vu?
The 2020’s possess some eerie similarities to the 1920’s and the 1990’s. Of course, history never repeats… it only rhymes. No one should ever expect a carbon copy of what took place in the past.
In all three cases, specific sectors of the market became exorbitantly overvalued. And, in each case, there were derivatives created to keep the party going and allow the most inexperienced and uninformed ‘investors’ to jump in near the top – exacerbating the impact of the ensuing decline…
The more things change, the more they stay the same!…
Stock Indices are steadily confirming the peaks set in many indexes in November ’24. That fulfilled the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks – setting multi-month highs in 4Q 2024 – that portends (at least) a 20 – 30% decline from those peaks.
That decline could stretch out for 6 – 12 months or longer but many other cycles & indicators will be used to hone that potential. The S+P Midcap 400 was the primary focus and was projected to spur an Oct/Nov ‘24 surge leading into a 3 – 6-month (or longer) peak on Nov 22/25, 2024.
That index precisely fulfilled that outlook and peaked on Nov 25th, along with the Russell 2000 & DJTA… and a myriad of related stocks.
The DJTA has gone through a textbook reversal sequence on many levels, including its weekly 21 MAC indicator. That index could easily drop back to ~13,500… where secondary lows were set in March – October ‘23, fulfilling a ~25% decline.
If the S+P Midcap drops to ~2750/IDX in 2025, it would fulfill a ~20% decline while returning to a very consistent range parameter that has helped set a series of highs in 2022 & 2023 and then lows in 2024. Monthly HLS levels and the monthly 21 Low MAC & 21 High MARC show that could occur as soon as March/April 2025.
The NQ-100, which retested its high and fulfilled its weekly trend pattern, signaled a peak on February 18/19th and could see a multi-month drop to ~17,800/NQ – the point at which a 20% decline would reach fruition while retesting the lows set in August ‘24 – a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a final, wave ‘5’ rally).
That is the primary downside wave target – following a major peak – and a level of 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month support.
The NQ-100 is another index where the monthly 21 Low MAC & monthly HLS levels identify March/April ‘25 as an ideal time for that target/support to be reached and a multi-month low to take hold.” — March ’25 INSIIDE Track
The Weekly Re-Lay will continue to detail shorter-term cycles & indicators that should help hone when an initial reversal higher is signaled.
From a much broader perspective, other cyclic factors should be reiterated:
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin… a market that has exhibited a close connection to specific stock indexes.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception).
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major bottom in the US Dollar Index and has been forecast to time a sharp drop in the Dollar – leading into a late-2025 bottom. That projected Dollar weakness could be both a cause and a consequence of declining stock prices.
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
If a 1 – 2 month low is set in April ‘25 – in line with what has been detailed since late-November ’24 – it would add another level of corroboration to future cycles [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are plunging after fulfilling projected peaks on March 25/26th – during multi-week & multi-month cycle highs and right at pivotal 1 – 2 week resistance levels. They remain likely to set major lows in early-April ’25 (April 3, 4 & 7th possess greatest synergy of cycles for completing 20 – 30% projected plunges). This is confirmation of weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January and corresponding sell signals triggered on/after January 22/23rd.
A drop into early-April could/should complete this initial 17-Year Cycle decline.
What Would Early-April Bottom Portend for 2Q 2025?
How Low is Early-April Drop Likely to Fall… and What Will Likely Follow?
Why are Monthly Trend & Monthly 21 MACs Key Factors?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.