Stocks Accelerating Lower; New Drop into March 12/13th Likely.
03/03/25 – “Stock indices are fulfilling the outlook for a sharp sell-off from Feb 19/20th into the week of March 3 – 7th. In the case of the S+P Midcap 400 – which peaked precisely during projected cycle highs on November 22/25, 2024 (along with DJTA & Russell 2000) – a drop into the week of March 3 – 7th would extend this decline to 14 weeks – allowing it to exceed the ~13-week decline of July – Oct ’23 and become the longest decline since late-Nov ’21 – early-March ’22… a reinforcing form of 4-Shadow Indicator signal (and a precise 3-Year Cycle)…
On a monthly basis, the NQ-100 traced out a textbook Turn-Key Reversal, culminating with the February ‘25 outside-month/2 Close Reversal lower. It dropped back to its pre-Election levels while attacking intra-year trend, weekly HLS, 21 MAC & 21 MARC support levels (portending an intermediate low in the ensuing ~week).
The DJIA is reinforcing a critical support zone, the primary downside objective for this sell-off into early-March. That involves mimicking the magnitude of three previous declines, two of which took place near the beginning of this uptrend (from Sept ’22).
In both of the earlier cases – Dec ’22 – Mar ’23 & July – Oct ’23 – the DJIA declined ~3,300 points over a ~3-month period. The DJIA came close to repeating that price drop in Dec ’24 (in much less time) and could do it again with a drop to ~41,700/DJIA. There are other reasons why that is an increased probability…
- A drop to ~41,700/DJIA would have the DJIA completing a ‘flat’ (2 highs and 2 lows near each other) correction with the 1Q ’25 decline equaling the 4Q ’24 decline.
- A drop to ~41,700/DJIA would have the DJIA retesting its late-Oct/early-Nov ’24 low – a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support.
- The current weekly 21 Low MARC and the weekly 21 Low MARCs in late-March/early-April are all surrounding ~41,700/DJIA.
- The rising weekly 40 Low MAC should be at ~41,700 during the 3rd/4th weeks of March ’25.
- Weekly HLS levels now surround 41,700.
- The DJIA could reach this quickly if it merely matched today’s decline (below today’s low… a type of HLS).
As with any target or support zone, the key factor is what the market does at that level. ~41,700/DJIA should also be viewed as a pivotal breakdown point. If the DJIA drops/closes below it, that would be indicating a higher-level decline and potential acceleration lower.
The DJIA has its March HLS near 41,100, close to where previous highs were set in July ’24 (resistance turned into support). The rising monthly 21 High MAC will be nearby in April ’25.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are poised for acceleration lower in March ’25, expected to drop sharply into March 12/13th before a multi-week low would become more likely. They are confirming the major peaks projected for Nov 22/25, 2024 (in S+P Midcap 400 & related indexes) and the subsequent/secondary highs projected for ~January 22nd – a multi-month topping process.
That was/is expected to prepare the way for sharper declines into March ’25 and confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift. That would validate weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January and portending a larger-magnitude sell-off after January 22/23rd.
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major (multi-month & multi-quarter) peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline in stocks. It also continues to project a recession AND stagflation in 2025/2026. Corroborating that, the DJIA is revealing eerie parallels to late-2007/early-2008 and providing a roadmap for future expectations.
What are Parallels – AND Contrasts – Between 1920’s, 1990’s & 2020’s?
How Could DJIA Plunge into March 12/13th Fulfill Key Downside Objectives?
What ‘Shadows’ Do Weekly Trend & 4-Shadow Signals Cast Ahead for Stocks in 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.