Stocks Attack 2850/IDX, 14,600/DJTA & 2000/QR Downside Targets; March 12/13th Cycle Low Fulfilled!
03/13/25 – “Stock indices have fulfilled most of what was expected from these latest declines – stemming from the February 18th highs and subsequent sell signals.
The leader of this decline – and the index that precisely fulfilled projections for a Major peak on November 22/25th followed by a multi-month sell-off – just attacked its 3 – 6 month downside target… at 2850/IDX.
That fulfills an uncanny range-trading target – discussed in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 – and also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a culminating rally), reinforcing its significance. It increases the likelihood for a multi-week low to take hold at this time… and at/near this price level.
[Related charts – detailing the range-trading objectives in the S+P Midcap 400 and Russell 2000 were published in November & December ’24 INSIIDE Track & Weekly Re-Lay publications.]
Today’s drop also had the IDX reaching the point where this latest decline – since the Feb 18/19th peak – equaling 1.272 (2DGR) times the magnitude of the initial late–Nov-through-mid-January decline – the initial downside target for a decline that is part of a developing bear market.
That reinforces the potential for an initial low to take hold now… other indexes have attacked monthly HLS levels (extreme downside targets for March ’25) and related downside objectives as they dropped into March 13th – a ~2-month/~60-degree cycle from the initial intra-year low on January 13, 2025.
Corroborating Weekly Cycles
The NQ-100 has similar cycles after spending the last few months tracing out a textbook Turn-Key Reversal, culminating with the February outside-month/2 Close Reversal lower.
A low on March 10 – 14th would have that index fulfilling a .618 retracement in time (19 weeks up, 12 weeks down) and a related ~31-week/~7-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
The S+P Midcap, by extending its decline into the current week, is completing successive ~7-week declines.
A low in the current week would fulfill the DJTA outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signal – and the latest phase of a textbook weekly 21 MAC Reversal sequence – generated on February 18 – 21st. That signal usually triggers a 2 – 3 week decline, which has now stretched into March 10 – 14th… the ideal week for an initial low.
If it sets a low this week, the DJTA would complete a .618 retracement in time (24 weeks up/14 – 15 weeks down).
The bottom line is that stock indexes have fulfilled downside price objectives in time and price and could bottom at any time and potentially see quick, sharp rallies. Daily closes above the March 12th highs would provide initial validation to that scenario.
From a much broader perspective, a few other cyclic factors should be reiterated:
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin… a market that has exhibited a close connection to specific stock indexes.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception).
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
From a much broader perspective, there are some unusual (though limited) parallels between the current markets and a key aspect of the 1920’s and a different (key) aspect of the 1990’s. This was discussed in the Feb 19 & 26, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alerts and in the March ’25 INSIIDE Track.
If a 1 – 2 month low is set in the March/April time frame (most synergistic convergence of cycles is in late-March/early-April ’25), it would add another level of corroboration to future cycles bottoming in July ’25 [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes have fulfilled projections for sharp plunges into March 12/13th when a multi-week low has been/is most likely. That was/is expected to add confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift – validating weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January (portending a larger-magnitude sell-off after January 22/23rd).
Downside targets near 2850/IDX, 14,600/DJTA & 2000/QRM are being tested and should usher in a multi-week low and subsequent bounce. Weekly extreme downside targets (HLS levels) in multiple indexes have been reached – the ideal level for a multi-week bottom.
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major (multi-month & multi-quarter) peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline in stocks. It also continues to project a recession AND stagflation in 2025/2026. Corroborating that, the DJIA is revealing eerie parallels to late-2007/early-2008 and providing a roadmap for future expectations.
Will 2 – 3 Month Downside Targets & March 12/13th Cycle Lows Usher in Multi-Week Low?
How High (and How Long) Could Subsequent Rebound Reach?
Will Indexes Bottom at Multi-Month Targets (2850/IDX, 14,600/DJTA, 2000/QR, etc.)?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.