Stocks Completing Topping Phase
11/26/16 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Stock Indices reversed their weekly trends back up while completing the 3rd week of an expected 1–3 week rally. This weekly trend signal adds to the uncertainty & conflicting signals of recent weeks.
While much of the bigger-picture analysis remains intact, the recent action has proven the 1–4 week expectations wrong (or at least significantly underestimated) and forced some adjustments to the 1–2 month outlook. Before addressing what was wrong, or has shifted, it is good to start with what remains intact…
1 – In sync with the monthly 21 MARC, wave alternation and other principles & indicators, 2015–2016 was expected to possess similarities to 2000–2001 – during which the DJIA effectively traded sideways while undergoing an ~18-month succession of sharp 1–3 month declines followed by strong 1–2 month rallies.
That pattern was expected to last through most of 2016 until longer-term cycles began to turn bearish in late-2016. That has been fulfilled.
2 – That ~1.5-year topping process – from May/June 2015 into Nov./Dec. 2016 – was/is expected to shift into a more bearish period (linked to the 17-Year Cycle and several corroborating cycles & indicators) – beginning in Dec. 2016–May 2017. That is the first vulnerable period – for a more sustained decline – within the larger-degree bearish cycles.
That has not been violated, but is yet to be fulfilled.
3 – In line with the 32–33 Week & 66-Week Cycles, Stock Indices were projected to suffer another multi-month decline – from Aug. into Nov. 2016… with an ultimate downside target at 2019–2026.25/ESZ. Once the Indices entered Nov. ’16, corroborating downside targets expanded that range to include 2032.75–2033.25/ESZ.
That was fulfilled with the Indices dropping into Nov. 2016 & testing 2028.5/ESZ. The DJIA futures & NQZ corroborated that. (The next phase of that cycle is in March/April 2017.)
4 – That drop was forecast to be similar to May–Aug. 2015 when ~75% of the overall decline occurred in the final 2 weeks.
That was fulfilled with the S+P 500 dropping over 75% – of its overall decline – in the final ~2 weeks.
5- A 5-month low (Aug. ’15)–low (Jan. ’16)–low (June ’16)–low (Nov. ’16) Cycle Progression projected a multi-month low for Nov. 2016.
That has been initially fulfilled, but will take longer to completely confirm…
6 – A related 19–20 Week Cycle focused on late-Nov. 2016 as the ideal time for that low.
That was NOT fulfilled, as the Indices bottomed 1–2 weeks early.
7 – On Nov. 4th, the weekly trend turned down – in the DJIA & ESZ – signaling the imminent completion of an initial decline (since mid-August) – and the time for a low (potentially violent) and subsequent 1–3 week rally.
That was fulfilled with the Indices creating a violent low on Nov. 9th – spiking right to extreme downside targets & multi-month wave targets.
8 – On Nov. 4th & 7th, multiple indicators signaled an acceleration of cycles, contributing to the violation of the 19–20 Week Cycle low.
That was fulfilled with the November cycle low being fulfilled during the first of two daily cycle lows in November(instead of the second).
9 – The weekly trend pattern & weekly 21 MAC projected a sharp multi-week rebound to a lower high.
That was NOT fulfilled – or was ‘over’-fulfilled – with stocks rallying sharply but exceeding their previous highs.
10 – A final ~2-week drop would surround Nov. 23rd – mimicking previous phases of the ~5-month low-low cycle. A 15-day cycle concurred.
That was NOT fulfilled. The Nov. 9th test of extreme downside price targets ultimately resulted in the failure of this expectation.
So, where does that leave the Indices?
They have fulfilled the Nov. ’16 cycle low and should remain above that low for (at least) another month… even as long-term cycles begin to turn negative in early-2017… similar to early-2000.
That 2000 peak was 34 years (2 x 17-Year Cycle) from the 1966 peak… that was 34 years from the 1932 bottom. So, 2017 remains the convergence of multiple 17-Year Cycles…
Stock Indices rallied sharply from their Nov. lows but are showing some divergence with the NQZ remaining below its Oct. peak. It is entering the next phase of a ~5-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the coming week.”
Stock Indices fulfilling diverse expectations & poised to enter initial part of bearish period in early-2017. 17-Year Cycle begins to turn negative in Jan.–Mar. 2017 and could trigger new decline. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional details.