Stocks Confirm Unfolding Rallies; Late-March – late-June Advance Continues.
Stocks Confirm Unfolding Rallies; Late-March – late-June Advance Continues.
05/12/18 Weekly Re-Lay: Stock Indices Stock Indices are rebounding, with the majority neutralizing their intra-year downtrends even as the weekly trend patterns are fighting to spur a rally back to the late-Jan. highs. The daily & intra-month trends spurred a rally into mid-month that could stretch into May 21 – 23…
Stock Indices have rebounded back to, or above, their April 17/18 peaks – validating their intra-month uptrends. They could wait until May 21 – 23 – the next phase of the corresponding 24 – 25 trading-day low-low-high-high-high-(high)Cycle Progression – to set another intermediate high.
The weekly trend patterns continue to portend congestion – turning from up to neutral (multiple times) but failing to turn down. That leaves open the potential for a retest of the Jan. highs (in at least some of the indexes) – by the next phase of the corresponding 5-month low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in June 2018.
The failure to confirm a weekly 21 MAC reversal reinforced that and projected a sharper rally – all part of this over-arching consolidation phase.
Also symptomatic of a congested market, the daily cycles governing the highs and lows are of near-equal duration. The May 3 spike low perpetuated a 21 – 23 trading day high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that next comes into play in early-June (when another low is probable).
Waves are similar. After dropping for 13 trading days (Mar. 13 – Apr. 2), they rallied for 12 trading days (Apr. 2 – 18) and then declined for 11. If the current rally matches the duration of the previous rally and the average of all of these (12 trading days), it would last into May 21 – and peak during the next phase of the 24 – 25 trading-day Cycle Progression (discussed in first paragraph).
With respect to corresponding indexes, the DJTA – with its Apr. 30 – May 4 low – corroborated the daily cycles and perpetuated a 12-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. Congestion remains!
Stock Indices all turned their intra-month trends up in early-May, projecting a rally into mid-month. They quickly corroborated that by turning their daily trends & daily 21 MACs up. That projects a minimum test of monthly resistance levels, which is now coming into play.
Equity indexes could see some hesitation near those levels but could still stretch their advances into May 21 – 23.”
Stock indexes are confirming expectations for a more convincing rally after holding successive support levels and cycle lows in late-April & early-May. This comes after the DJIA fulfilled projections (detailed since mid-2017) for a sharp drop from late-Jan. into/through March 2018 (lowest daily AND weekly close was March 23, 2018). It did that without turning its weekly trend down, projecting a rally back toward the late-Jan. highs.
A 1 – 3 week high is likely on May 21 – 23 followed by a more significant peak on June 25 – 29, the next phase of that 24 – 25 trading day cycle. The Nasdaq is in the strongest technical position and is more likely to retest its all-time peak, leading into monthly cycle highs in June/July 2018. That was reinforced by a multi-week low taking hold on April 23 – 27 while triggering bullish 1 – 2 month technical signals. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional details.