Stocks Confirming Early-April (Multi-Month) Cycle Low & Fulfillment of 17-Year Cycle Projected Plunge!
04/14/25 – “Stock Indices fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for 20 – 25% (or larger) declines into early-April while tracing out a textbook monthly chart scenario for 1 – 2 month lows (test monthly HLS in March ’25, then test monthly LLS in April ‘25).
All of that reinforced the decisive nature of cycle lows on April 3 – 7th, when most stocks bottomed. Initial rebounds into April 17/21st were/are expected.
Since the start of 2025, the focus has been on March/April – more specifically on late-March/early-April ’25 – as the most likely time for the culmination of multi-month stock plunges. That has been stressed repeatedly.
As described in February & March, stocks had a high potential to fulfill (minimum) 17-Year Cycle projections – for 20 – 25% declines – by/in April ’25 when an initial bottom was/is most likely. That is why a pair of plunges were projected to follow the late-February signals.
That was corroborated by a myriad of timing indicators projecting sell-offs into April 3 – 7, including a ~9-week/~2-month high-high-high-high-(low; April 1 – 7) Cycle Progression – in the DJIA, DJTA & other indexes – and the ubiquitous ~8-month cycle from the August 5, ’24 low.
In the S+P 500, that ~8-month cycle (same cycle that projected the IDX Nov 22/25, ’24 peak) split into a symmetrical ~4-month/123-day low (Aug 5) – high (Dec 6) – (low; April 4/7th) cycle. The DJTA also completed a 2DGR retracement while fulfilling the potential for the longest decline since 2022 (a higher magnitude 4-Shadow signal, which is actually confirmation of an impulse wave down).
In setting recent lows, the S&P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 plunged to decisive range-trading targets while the DJTA, described as being in a more bearish setup, was projected to see a larger decline and reached the 30% decline threshold in sync with those early-April cycle lows.
By setting new intra-year lows during the month of April, stocks have also fulfilled the potential to reinforce future cycles – converging in July 2025. The intervening action, particularly that of the weekly trend indicator, should help hone if those future lows are likely to be lower than April lows…
This should all be kept in the much broader perspective that involves all kinds of diverse expectations for 2025/2026. The following are just a few of the reasons why INSIIDE Track publications have continued to project a major stock market top in 4Q 2024 and a large (20 – 25% minimum) plunge in 2025:
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major plunge in stocks (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020) and had/has been projected to see (at least) a 20 – 25% drop in stock prices.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception)
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. 2025 was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market and the onset of sharp sell-offs.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000.
2025 was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market and has been forecast to include at least a 20 – 25% plunge in equity prices – initially culminating in early-April ‘25.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
Along with other analogues, that has been showing that 25 – 50% declines are likely in 2025… possibly stretching into 2026. The first part of that has just been fulfilled or nearly fulfilled.
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major bottom in the US Dollar Index and has been forecast to time a sharp drop in the Dollar – leading into a late-2025 bottom.
That projected Dollar weakness could be both a cause and a consequence of declining stock prices, further exacerbating all the other negative cycles weighing on stock indexes to begin this period.
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes plunged into decisive cycle lows in early-April ’25 (April 3, 4 & 7th possessed greatest synergy of cycles for completing 20 – 30% projected plunges) while fulfilling major downside price targets and 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025. Their monthly trend patterns, monthly 21 MACs & MARCs, monthly (and weekly) cycles, monthly downside objectives & 6 – 12 month support levels all argue for powerful rallies that could catapult key indexes up to new all-time highs.
Metals are corroborating as Silver (along with Platinum & Palladium) fulfilling ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April… followed by powerful surges. Meanwhile, Gold just pulled back to support and is projecting a surge into the days surrounding April 19th (Date of Aggression) along with the XAU & HUI. Gold is expected to set a 2 – 3 month peak at that time.
What Does April 4th/7th Bottom Portend for Rest of 2025?
Why are Monthly Trend & Monthly 21 MACs Reinforcing Potential Lows?
Which Indexes are Most Likely to Rally Back to Highs?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.