Stocks Diverging as NQ-100 Signals Daily & Weekly Low; Projects New Rally.
06/01/24 – “Stock indexes remain divergent with the DJIA now entering a decisive 1 – 2 week period basis its weekly trend. On balance, most equities are expected to move lower into June 17 – 28th (June 19/20th is growing in synergy)…
The DJTA could decline for ~5 weeks (same duration as April decline) into June 17/18 (-20th) – when a ~1-month cycle – timing lows on Jan 17, Feb 20, March 18/19 & April 17/18th – also returns.
The Russell 2000 is expected to decline into June 19/20th – completing a 50% retracement in time (157 days up, 79 days down) while bottoming 2 months/~60 degrees from its April 19th low.
A decline into June 19/20th would have the latest decline (since May 15th cycle high) – a dynamic ‘c’ or ‘3’ wave decline – double the duration of the ‘a’ or ‘1’ wave decline.
Price action, however, is the critical factor. The DJIA has now twice neutralized its weekly uptrend and needs a weekly close below 38,000/DJIA to turn its weekly trend down, confirm a 1 – 2 month peak, and prevent a rally back to the highs.
Stock Indices experienced a new round of selling into May 30th with the weaker DJTA closing at new lows for 2024 as the S+P 500… testing and holding its weekly HLS (weekly extreme downside target at 5213/ESM).
At the same time, the DJIA & Nasdaq-100 were also testing their weekly extreme targets (HLS)… with one revealing distinction… The NQ-100 was only able to twice neutralize its daily uptrend and reversed higher on the following day (May 31) as the S+P 500 was entering its reactive rally… New intra-month trends could filter this.”
Stock Indexes fulfilled the outlook for a new decline in the second half of May 2024 with the S+P 500 & NQ-100 dropping to extreme downside targets without turning their weekly trends down. The DJIA was similar and would not turn negative until a weekly close below 38,000/DJIA. The NQ-100 is reinforcing expectations for similarities to 2007, in line with the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks (successive highs in 1Q ‘24, July ‘24, and then October ’24 projected).
The DJTA & Russell 2000 maintain the likelihood for additional lows in ~mid-June – the time when a multi-month bottom is most likely and when this overall corrective period should culminate… leading to new rallies into July ‘24. The DJTA is focused on June 17 – 19th for a bottom. The Russell 2000 concurs – with a decisive low expected on ~June 19/20th.
Why is Mid-June ’24 Cycle Low the Key to 3Q/4Q ’24 Outlook?
How Does This Reinforce 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast for July & October 2024?
Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Staglfation) Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.