Stocks & June ’24 Cycle Lows; DJTA Poised for Spike Down; DJUA Projects New Rally.
06/13/24 – “Stock indexes are widening their divergence as the S+P 500 & NQ-100 remain strong on the backs of key tech & AI stocks while the DJIA, DJTA, Russell 2000 and S+P Midcap 400 reflect a more negative reality in the broader market.
As they near the culmination of the current intermediate cycle – that bottoms in the latter part of June ’24 – it is important to keep the 90/10 Rule of Cycles in mind…
Reinforcing that, the DJIA is adding to the potentially negative setup that has been discussed in the Weekly Re-Lay. Simply put, the DJIA has been showing signs of a developing multi-month peak but needs a weekly close below 38,000/DJIA to turn its weekly trend down and confirm that potential…
There is more to that, including the action of the daily trend and what that could trigger in the coming days, that is discussed in Weekly Re-Lay publications. However, to keep from focusing too much on just the 1 – 2 week outlook, it is important to view the broader perspective in multiple indexes…
The Russell 2000 is a bit more bearish as it remains in a weekly downtrend and could turn its weekly 21 MAC negative with a weekly close below 2037/QRU. That would be reinforced if it subsequently drops below 1995/QRU next week – turning the direction of the weekly 21 Low MAC down immediately after giving a weekly close below it…
The DJTA already turned its weekly trend and 21 MAC down and reinforced it on June 7th with a weekly 2 Close Reversal sell signal after retesting the weekly 21 Low MAC. To begin this week, it spiked up to its declining weekly 21 Low MAC, spiking just above last week’s high and setting the stage for another weekly 2 Close Reversal lower (needing a June 14th close below 15,022/DJTA to trigger)…
That remains in the context of the broader perspective and the intriguing action that has been playing out in the DJTA – an index that often leads major turning points in the overall market, sometimes by more than a year…
See the June 2024 INSIIDE Track for additional analysis.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders could have exited a portion of long positions in March, anticipating a sell-off that could stretch into late-May or even mid-June 2024. The Weekly Re-Lay will update changes and signals in the shorter-term trends.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are moving toward decisive peaks projected for July & October 2024, in sync with overall 17-Year Cycle analysis and parallels. The NQ-100 is reinforcing expectations for similarities to 2007, in line with the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks (successive highs in 1Q ‘24, July ‘24, and then October ’24 projected). Several timing indicators project a critical top for July 2024!
The DJTA & Russell 2000 maintain the likelihood for additional lows in ~mid-June – the time when a multi-month bottom is most likely and when this latest corrective period should culminate… leading to new rallies into July ‘24. The DJTA is focused on June 17 – 21st for a bottom. The Russell 2000 concurs – with a decisive low expected on ~June 18/20th. The DJIA and other indexes concur.
How Does Current Sell-off Set Stage for Larger 3Q ’24 Decline?
Why Does 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast Pivotal Highs for July & October 2024?
Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Stagflation) Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.