Stocks Enter Decisive Period (Date of Aggression).
Stocks Enter Decisive Period (Date of Aggression).
04/17/18 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update: Stock Indices have fulfilled the potential for additional upside into April 12 – 17, after turning their intra-month trends up on April 5. By extending this rally into April 17, most* indexes have also matched the duration (11 trading days) of the February advance – from Feb. 9 – 27. (*The S+P actually bottomed on Feb. 6, so its rally has not yet matched the duration of its Feb. 2018 rally.) However, they have not come close to matching the magnitude of those February rallies.
In addition to a potential mid-month peak, a secondary peak on April 17 or 18 would also perpetuate a 24 – 25 trading-day low (Dec. 29) – low (Feb. 6) – high (Mar. 13) – high (April 17/18) Cycle Progression.
The weekly close remains the decisive factor. If the DJIA & ESM are to (at least) maintain their recent streak, they would need to [reserved for subscribers]…
From a broader, geopolitical cycle perspective, this now ushers in a particularly vulnerable period on April 18 – 20 (and the ensuing days). From the perspective of the Date of Aggression, it is uncanny that China recently announced a surprise round of naval, live-fire drills to be conducted in the Taiwan Strait on April 18… shortly after similar drills in the South China Sea. Both of these drills are intended to send a message to the US and to Taiwan… attempting to dissuade each from pursuing closer ties with the other.
(As explained before, Taiwan is nearing its 70-Year ‘birthday’ in 2019. A 70-Year Cycle is the ‘Cycle of Kings’ and Cycle of Governments. At the same time, the US & China are entering the latest phase of their 40-Year Cycle that last timed the late-1978/early-1979 shift in US policy toward China & Taiwan. These current events could be the opening salvo in a much larger struggle as cycles near a critical juncture in 2019.)
On a related note, investors should keep one eye on China’s equity markets and the Shanghai Composite Index. That is the same Index that surged parabolically into mid-2015 – pulling many other global indices higher in its wake – and the same index that plummeted almost 50% in the ensuing months, helping to fulfill ‘crash cycles’ in 2015/2016 (that projected a 1 – 2 year drop of 30% or more in a majority of stocks & indexes).
In late-Jan./early-Feb., that index dropped sharply for two weeks – erasing an entire year’s worth of gains. Since then, it has consolidated while turning more indicators negative. Now, it is heading back for its lows and just triggered its lowest daily close since May 2017. This index closed at 3211/XGY and is nearing 18-month support around 3150/XGY. A daily (and then weekly) close below that level would spell trouble.
To put that in a broader perspective, the Shanghai Composite is again trading in the lower 20% of its ~3-year trading range – down more than 40% from its mid-2015 peak. Its multi-year downside target is around 2,000 – the level of its 2012 – 2014 lows AND now also a multi-year HHL objective (Jun, ’16 High of 5423 – Jan. ’18 High of 3757 projects a drop to 2091).
From a fundamental perspective, there are plenty of other potential ‘hot-spots’ around the globe, including Syria. Not much blowback has occurred since the April 12 airstrikes (except for the normal UN clamor). That could easily be an attempt to downplay those strikes and prevent any further escalation… or it could be a calm before the next storm. That is not the only at-risk area, but certainly one of the most notable in the current time frame.”
Stock indexes are intensifying the overall focus on April 18 – 20, when tensions could escalate and when markets like Gold, Silver & Crude project breakout surges. China is taking center stage – with regard to military actions AND equity market movement – adding increasing uncertainty as we near April 19 (Date of Aggression). See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional details.