Stocks Focused on Aug./Sept. ’19 Danger Period II; 40-Year Cycle & 4-Year Cycle Portend Bearish Aug. ‘19.

06/29/19 – The 40-Year Cycle has been corroborating what the 4-Year Cycle has forecast for the past 29 months.  The January 2017 Special Report – 40-Year Cycle: Stocks in 2017 – 2021, explained this uncanny cycle:

1-19-17 – Finally, there are slightly larger-degree cycles arguing for a low in Aug./Sept. 2017 – as a precursor to a more important low in 3Q 2019.  This is related to the 16-Month Cycle, as discussed in the preceding 5/31/16 analysis (see top of page 10).  Three of those 16-Month Cycles combine to create a ~4-Year Cycle – one half of one of the most consistent multi-year cycles in Stock Indices – the ~8-Year Cycle.

In July/August 2007, the Indices suffered a moderate decline that was ultimately recognized as an important precursor to what was to follow. 

In some Indices (those that peaked in July 2007), that was the first decline in an infant bear market.  In most, it was the final decline in an aging bull market… that was about to die a violent death.

4 years later, in July/August 2011 (NQ-100) or July–Oct. 2011 (DJIA, SP, others), the Indices suffered a serious setback – the last one before a multi-year surge to new highs.

In July/August 2015, 4 years later, the Indices suffered an even greater sell-off with some (like China’s Shanghai Composite) undergoing an all-out crash – providing early fulfillment to Crash Cycles.

In each case, the Indices bottomed in August or September (with a few waiting until Oct. in 2011).

This 4-Year Cycle projects focus on July–Sept. 2019 – for another important decline & bottom.  In the interim, there is a growing potential for an intervening low at the ~2-year point (from the Aug. 2015 bottom) – surrounding August 2017.  That is reinforced by a growing synergy of weekly & monthly cycles that will be elaborated later.

Stocks remain focused on Aug. ‘19 bearish cycles, casting shadows ahead for a sharper decline.  40-Year Cycle & 4-Year Cycle project increasing trouble in/around Aug. ‘19… with a Aug. ’15-style sell-off becoming increasingly more likely!  What would Aug. ’19 sell-off mean for 4Q ‘19?

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.