Stocks Fulfill Sept 12 – 16 Cycle High; On Track for Ultimate New (’22) Lows.
09/17/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices set what should be multi-week highs this past week… The intra-year trends remain down and most indexes tested their early-year lows before peaking in mid-Aug. More volatile consolidation is expected through the rest of September…
Stock Indices – after signaling and then fulfilling intra-month uptrends – dropped into mid-month while turning their intra-month trends down… They began the week by rallying to their descending daily 21 High MACs and peaking on Sept 13 while testing and holding monthly resistance levels in the S+P 500, NQ-100, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400.
That perpetuated the ~4-week cycle that timed lows on May 12, June 16 & July 14 and now subsequent highs on Aug 16 & Sept 13 – fulfilling a ~1-month low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression…
On a broader basis, stock indexes mostly remain in multi-month periods of consolidation – above their mid-June lows and below their mid-Aug highs but in intra-year downtrends. Their June – Aug ’22 rallies had many indexes retesting their early-year lows – the primary resistance for their intra-year uptrends.
As long as they do not neutralize those intra-year downtrends, stocks remain likely to see another decline in 4Q ’22 that could last into late-2022.
For now, volatility is expected to continue with the DJTA just spiking to new lows and extending its overall downtrend. The other indexes are likely to take longer before reaching new 2022 lows.
Stock Indexes sold off into Sept 16 while turning daily trends back down at the same time the NQ-100 turned its weekly trend back down.”
Stock indexes have sold off after completing the July 14 buy signals on Aug 16 while attacking primary upside price targets and completing what had been forecast to be ‘the largest rally of 2022’. A subsequent, divergent high was just set on Sept 12 – 16, ushering in a bearish phase for stocks in the second half of September ’22.
The DJIA reached its multi-month upside target (~34,200) in mid-Aug, signaling a likely multi-month peak, as the DJTA & S+P Midcap 400 fulfilled decisive cycle highs and related upside objectives that likely created multi-month peaks. Most indexes failed to turn their weekly trends up, signaling multi-month tops and projecting declines back to/below their mid-June lows in the ensuing month(s).
On a broader basis, stocks are reinforcing longer-term analysis for a 1 – 2 year peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in 2022. See related publications for additional analysis.
How Does Mid-Aug ’22 Cycle Peak Fit with Overall 2022/2023 Outlook?
Why Does DJIA, DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 Action Portend New Lows??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.