Stocks Fulfill Sept 12 – 16 Cycle High; Poised for Sept Low by/on Sept 30.
09/21/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices set what should be multi-week highs on Sept 12 – 16… stocks have sold off into the latest phase of a 14 – 15-week high-low-low-(low; Sept 21 – 30) Cycle Progression in the NQ-100 – one of the two most consistent weekly cycles over the past ~15 years – and the week following the NQ-100’s weekly trend reversal.
This is the most common time for a multi-week low…
From a price perspective, most indexes tested and held their monthly resistance levels on Sept 13 and have since plunged toward their monthly support levels (30,074 – 30,124/DJIA, 3779.0 – 3786.0/ESZ & 11,555 – 11,610/NQZ) – some of which overlap weekly support.
That increases the potential for a 1 – 2 week low if/when these levels are tested and hold.
From a broader perspective, the intra-year trends remain down and most indexes tested their early-year lows before peaking in mid-Aug. That reinforced the outlook for more volatile consolidation through September with a retest of the June lows possible in some indexes (based on their weekly trend patterns).
The DJTA – which topped in mid-Aug in sync with a 20-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression while completing successive advances of 33 days each – has been the first to spike to new 2022 lows.
Other indexes have also continually validated their mid-Aug ’22 peaks. At the time, the DJIA reached 2 – 3 month upside targets (34,200/DJIA) that were projected to mark its 3Q ’22 peak.
At the same time, the S+P Midcap 400 peaked within days of a ~21-week low-high-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Sequence while fulfilling an over-arching 41 – 43-week low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression – and completing a full .618 rebound of their Nov ’21 – June ’22 decline… without turning its weekly trend up.
Most other indexes failed to turn their weekly trends up during that rally (into mid-Aug ‘22), signaling subsequent drops back to their mid-June lows. That continues to unfold.”
Stock indexes have sold off into the recurrence of an uncanny ~15-Week Cycle that projects a 1 – 2 month bottom by/on Sept 30, as long as the necessary indexes drop to new 2022 lows.
On a broader basis, stocks are reinforcing longer-term analysis for a 1 – 2 year peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in 2022. See related publications for additional analysis.
How Would Late-Sept ’22 Low Reinforce Overall 2022/2023 Outlook?
How High Could Oct ’22 Rebound Reach??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.