Stocks Fulfilling ~October 18th Cycle Highs; Portend Quick Sell-off; Late-November ’24 Cycle Highs in Focus
10/21/24 – “Stock Indices fulfilled the outlook for a quick surge into October 17 – 21st and are now at a critical crossroads. On a 6 – 12-month and 1 – 2 year basis, they have fulfilled analysis for an overall advance into October 2024 – the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks… intermediate and short-term indicators & cycles could extend this rally – in select stocks and indexes – into Nov ’24…
The outlook for a surge into October 17/18th aligned with the primary (geometric) cycle in the DJIA that has just come back into play and was forecast to trigger a quick, sharp sell-off. A ~3-month cycle dates back to its mid-October ’22 low and subsequent highs in January, April & July 2023.
That was followed by a ~3-month decline into the middle half of October ’23 – when another 6 – 12 month bottom was set.
From there, the DJIA traced out a ~3-month/~13-week low – low (Jan 17) – low (Apr 17) – high (July 17/18, ’24) Cycle Progression – projecting a future peak for October 17/18, 2024. The S+P 500 had similar cycles and turning points converging on October 17/18, 2024.
The successive, mid-October (’22 & ’23) lows also project a rally into mid-October ’24 (12-month/360-degree low-low-(high) Cycle Progression). A corroborating ~10-week low-low-(high) and ~5-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression also projected rallies into October 17/18, ’24.
So, too, did a more recent 37-day low (Aug 5) – low (Sept 11) – (high; October 18, 2024) Cycle Progression.
Price action corroborated that. On October 11th, the DJIA precisely tested and held its weekly LHR (42,863/DJIA was LHR; 42,863 was Oct 11th close). That indicator shows that a market is stretching to an extreme…
On a 6 – 12 month and 1 – 2 year basis, the DJIA also reached two primary upside range targets. The first was generated by the rally from October 2022 into August 2023. A doubling of that primary advance projected an ultimate advance to at least 42,698/DJIA.
As the subsequent rally from October 2023 unfolded, and set a secondary low in mid-April 2024 – creating a 6 – 12-month LLH objective at 42,895/DJIA.
With the DJIA attacking all those objectives in the week prior to cycles peaking, it entered last week with most of its weekly resistance centered just above 43,300/DJIA. It peaked at 43,325 on October 18th – fulfilling a myriad of time and price objectives and setting the stage for a top.
At the very least, it would take a daily close below 42,700/DJIA to signal that a (minimum) 1 – 2 week top is in place. A daily close below 42,495/DJIA (weekly HLS) would be more convincing… the DJIA could drop below 41,831/DJIA by/on October 31, 2024 and complete an Intra-Month Inverted V Reversal lower.
Daily price action would need to validate that scenario.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are signaling a top after fulfilling cycle highs on October 17/18th. A quick sell-off is expected to follow with the DJIA signaling a likely drop into late-October/early-November. The ~5-week/~37-day cycle that peaked on October 18th portends a subsequent peak on/around November 22/25th – when a myriad of cycles top in the S+P Midcap 400.
The S+P Midcap 400 and related indexes are showing that small and mid-cap stocks are likely to lead a surge into late-November ’24 after the developing sell-off unfolds. The 17-Year Cycle remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities but price action needs to hone when and where that is most likely.
Interestingly, Bitcoin recently corroborated this outlook – generating additional buy signals in early-October and projecting a surge into November 2024. See October 3, 2024 issue of The Bridge for details.
Why is S+P Midcap 400 Poised to Lead Surge into Late-November?
How Do Bitcoin Cycles & Signals Corroborate?
What Does the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Portend?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.