Stocks Hone Price Targets for Projected Drop into March 12/13th!
03/05/25 – “Stock indices fulfilled 1 – 2 week expectations for a sharp drop from Feb 18/19 – when the S+P 500 & NQ-100 fulfilled their upside objectives & weekly trend targets and signaled a peak – into the opening days of March… when some daily cycles recurred.
While that was expected to usher in an initial low, it is not expected to hold for too long.
In the ideal scenario (if multiple indexes had attacked multi-week downside targets), it could have ushered in a 1 – 2 week bottom. However, that is not the case… so there is no telling how long (or short) these lows will hold. Price action should make that determination.
In addition, there is still room for an additional drop… that would still fulfill that near-term timing target… In the interim, a review of some key price objectives is warranted.
The first involves the uncanny range-trading target in the S+P Midcap 400 – coming into play around 2850/IDX. That is also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a culminating rally), reinforcing its significance.
The related high (Dec ’23) and lows (April & Aug ’24) are at 2810 – 2817/IDX – so that is a more likely downside target/support for this decline.
[The chart above is reprinted from November ’24 – when that index precisely fulfilled major cycle highs and upside range trading targets and projected a 3 – 6 month or longer decline.]
Reinforcing that, the rising monthly 21 Low MAC is around 2785 and could reach ~2810 in April ’25. (The rising monthly 40 High MAC is at ~2830/IDX.)
The monthly HLS (extreme downside target for March ’25) is at 2803/IDX.
Then there is the DJIA, which remains focused on ~41,700 as its primary downside target (but not its only downside target).
In addition to the following indicators/targets, a drop to that level would have the DJIA mimicking the magnitude of three previous declines, two of which took place near the beginning of this uptrend (from Sept ’22).
In both cases – Dec ’22 — Mar ’23 & July — Oct ’23 – the DJIA declined ~3,300 points over a ~3-month period. The DJIA came close to repeating that price drop in Dec ’24 and could do it again with a drop to ~41,700/DJIA. Also…
- A drop to ~41,700/DJIA would have the DJIA completing a ‘flat’ (2 highs and 2 lows near each other) correction with the 1Q ’25 decline equaling the 4Q ’24 decline.
- A drop to ~41,700/DJIA would have the DJIA retesting its late-Oct/early-Nov ’24 low – a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support.
- The current weekly 21 Low MARC and the weekly 21 Low MARCs in late-March/early-April are all surrounding ~41,700/DJIA.
- The rising weekly 40 Low MAC should be at ~41,700 during the 3rd/4th weeks of March ’25.
- Weekly HLS levels now surround 41,700 with the current one at 41,564/DJIA. Last week’s was a little higher.
The DJIA has also been targeting a slightly-offset convergence of cycle lows that could stretch this decline into next week.
The DJIA could trace out a flat ‘a-b-c’ correction in which the ‘c’ wave decline (from the Jan 31st high) would equal the duration of the ‘a’ wave decline (Dec 4 – Jan 10/13). That would take it down into ~March 12th – bottoming 2 months from the Jan 10/13th low.
The NQ-100 has similar cycles focused on next week. This comes after it spent the last few months tracing out a textbook Turn-Key Reversal, culminating with the February outside-month/2 Close Reversal lower.
That had the tech-heavy NQ-100 dropping back to its pre-Election levels while attacking intra-year trend, weekly HLS, 21 MAC & 21 MARC support levels.
A low on March 10 – 14th would have that index fulfilling a .618 retracement in time (19 weeks up, 12 weeks down) and a related ~31-week/~7-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
The S+P Midcap, by extending its decline into the current week, has exceeded the duration of every decline since early-2022. And, by dropping below 2990/IDX on March 4th, that index exceeded the magnitude of all of the sell-offs during the Sept ’22 – Nov ’24 advance.
That generates a larger-magnitude 4-Shadow signal that should have a greater impact later in 2025. By spiking below 2953/IDX, it also exceeded the magnitude of its 3Q 2022 decline – the largest decline since the initial June ’22 low.
If it extends its decline into March 10 – 14th, the IDX would complete successive ~7-week declines.
Meanwhile, the DJTA triggered an outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower – and the next phase of a textbook weekly 21 MAC Reversal sequence – on February 18 – 21st. That signal usually triggers a 2 – 3 week decline, which has since unfolded. It could stretch into March 10 – 14th… the 3rd week.
If it sets a low between March 6th & March 14th, the DJTA would complete a .618 retracement in time (164 days up/101 days down or 24 weeks up/14 – 15 weeks down).
It could see a test of ~14,600/DJTA before a bottom is set. That objective includes monthly AND weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) as well as the low from 2024… a type of 4th wave of lesser degree support (even if the surrounding waves do not provide the textbook structure).
A drop to that level would also provide symmetry between the two declines since the Nov ’24 peak (‘c’ = ‘a’ down). It would also include a 50% retracement of the entire 2022 – 2024 advance.
The Russell 2000 has related downside targets near 2000/QR.
Tomorrow (March 6th) is the first day the new intra-month trends could turn up or down. If stock indexes are going to extend these declines, and potentially spike lower into next week, they would need to give daily closes below the March 4/5th lows to turn the intra-month trends down and signal new weakness.
From a much broader perspective, a few other cyclic factors should be reiterated:
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin… a market that has exhibited a close connection to specific stock indexes.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception).
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are fulfilling projections for acceleration lower in March ’25, expected to extend into March 12/13th before a multi-week low would become more likely (if downside targets are hit). They are confirming the major peaks projected for Nov 22/25, 2024 (in S+P Midcap 400 & related indexes) and the subsequent/secondary highs projected for ~January 22nd – a multi-month topping process.
That was/is expected to prepare the way for sharper declines into March ’25 and confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift. That would validate weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January and portending a larger-magnitude sell-off after January 22/23rd.
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major (multi-month & multi-quarter) peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline in stocks. It also continues to project a recession AND stagflation in 2025/2026. Corroborating that, the DJIA is revealing eerie parallels to late-2007/early-2008 and providing a roadmap for future expectations.
Can Major Indexes Attack 2 – 3 Month Downside Targets by/on March 12/13th?
How Could DJIA Plunge into March 12/13th Fulfill Key Downside Objectives?
What ‘Shadows’ Do Weekly Trend & 4-Shadow Signals Cast Ahead for Stocks in 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.