Stocks Maintain Additional Upside Until Price Targets are Met; Jan. 17/18 is Key.
Stocks Maintain Additional Upside Until Price Targets are Met; Jan. 17/18 is Key.
01/09/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices have surged since bottoming on Dec. 26 while fulfilling daily cycles, a 14-week high-high-high-low (Dec. 24 – 28) Cycle Progression and a related 7-week high (Sept. 17 – 21) – high (Nov. 5 – 9) – low (Dec. 24 – 28) Cycle Progression.
That low also had the DJIA testing its 2018 downside target (22,100) while the Nasdaq 100 reached its 4Q 2018 downside target (6200/NQ) – allowing equities (both domestic and global) to fulfill much of what was forecast for 2018… and for 4Q 2018.
From a bigger-picture perspective, the most telling aspect of that overall December decline was the monthly trend – that turned down in most indexes on Dec. 31. That is a lagging/confirming indicator that often times the low of an initial decline. So, many diverse factors were corroborating expectations for a low.
Looking out over the remainder of January, it is some of the smaller-degree factors that might have the biggest impact. The Dec. 26 low fulfilled a 16 trading-day high (Oct. 17) – high (Nov. 8) – high (Dec. 3) – low (Dec. 26/27) Cycle Progression.
That daily cycle has governed the Major Market Index since mid-year, creating a 15 – 16 trading-day low (6/25) – high (7/17) – high (8/07) – high (8/29) – high (9/21) – high (10/17) – high (11/08) – high (12/03) – low (12/26 – 27/18) Cycle Progression that next comes into play on Jan. 17 – 18…
With each of the primary indexes turning their intra-month trends up, that signal projected rallies into mid-month, which could extend this rally a couple more days… Most important, however, will be price. So, the coming days should be decisive.
From a price perspective, this rally was/is projected to reach the late-Oct. lows and corroborating resistance that includes pairs of weekly LHR levels (24,295 – 24,366/DJIA, 2637- 2646/ESH & 6752 – 6774/NQH).
In each case, those levels also represent the 50% rebound levels – recovering half of what was lost in 4Q 2018.
The S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 have reinforced those target ranges with daily & intra-week targets while the DJIA has expanded the range a little – down to ~24,100. Daily LHRs are now corroborating that.
Another point of interest (and possible influence) is that tomorrow has the best chance – of the next four trading days – to see any of the indices turn their daily 21 MACs up. This is a natural expectation at some point after the markets close above their daily 21 High MACs – exceeding those channels to the upside – which occurred today.”
Stocks are adhering to the outlook for a sharp rebound in the first half of January. The Dec. 26/27 lows fulfilled daily & weekly cycles and triggered signals that projected sharp rallies to 24,295 – 24,366/DJIA, 2637- 2646/ESH & 6752 – 6774/NQ. Those levels should be met before a 1 – 2 week top becomes more likely. From a timing perspective, equities have rallied into Jan. 9, fulfilling initial expectations. Jan. 17 – 18 is next key cycle.
All of this action is powerfully validating the 2019 outlook for stock markets and for key cycles coming up in the next few weeks AND in the next few months. Could this outlook be clarifying what to expect from a geopolitical standpoint? …In the same way that 2018 pinpointed watershed events??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.