Stocks Nearing Intermediate Peak
10/31/15 Weekly Re-Lay: “The DJIA, ESZ & NQZ have rallied from their lows, reaching the time when another intermediate high is expected. The Nasdaq 100 also fulfilled its weekly trend pattern, which projected a retest of the highs (since it failed to reverse that trend down in late-August/early-Sept.) Traders should be getting back on the short side of the Indices…
Stock Indices have rebounded to an extreme, following the culmination of their ‘Capitulation Phase’ (May–August 2015) and their overall ~5-month bearish period (late-April–late-Sept. 2015). The next truly bearish period – and more convincing facet of the larger-degree, 2015/2016 Crash Cycles – is likely to take hold after mid-Dec.
In the interim, I expect continued volatility with strong rallies followed by sharp declines… and vice versa. That remains the outlook for 2015, a similar pattern to the 2000–2001 bear market.
During the past week, many Indices reached extremes – in time, price or pattern – setting the stage for an intermediate top. One example is that the Indices completed the 3rd week since surging to their weekly LHR levels – a signal that usually produces an intermediate peak within 3 weeks.”
Stock Indices are fulfilling the latest phase of the 2015/2016 Roadmap with a strong advance in 4Q 2015. Numerous cycles peak in early-November, even though cycles do not turn decidedly negative until after mid-Dec. 2015. Mid-Dec. ’15–early-Feb. 2016 = Initial Down Phase of Cycles.