Stocks & Silver Prepare for Quick Sell-offs in early-August; New Up Cycles in Late-August.
07-23-25 – “Stock indices resumed their rallies, fulfilling the latest phase of the outlook for early-July penultimate highs followed by pullbacks into mid-July and then followed by rallies to higher highs leading into late-July ’25 – when multi-month cycles peak…
The S+P Midcap 400 – the index that led this year’s ’17-Year Cycle’ sell-off when it peaked in late-Nov ’24 – has experienced intermediate advances of 16 – 18 weeks on 3 previous occasions since its Oct ’22 low. This would be the 4th time and complete 4 of 5 similar rallies lasting the same duration… since Oct ’22.
Just as important is price action.
Ever since the April 7th lows, the monthly trend indicator in the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 has projected a subsequent rally to new all-time highs. The S+P 500 & NQ-100 already fulfilled that. Now, the DJIA is on the cusp of doing the same thing – within striking distance of 45,073/DJIA… its intraday peak.
That is the index that has been viewed as the bellwether for this outlook… and is about to signal this advance has reached its upside targets and is beginning to ‘live on borrowed time’ – just as cycles are already revealing the same thing.
If an intermediate peak is set in late-July, it would likely spur a sharp 2 – 3 week decline into late-August ’25 and fulfill an overlapping ~19-week high-low-(low; Aug 20 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression – linked to the Nov ’24 – April ’25 declines in a majority of the major indexes. (The weekly trends – at the fulfillment of that decline – would be the key to what should follow in the equity markets.)
While the two might not be directly connected, these stock market cycles – and a cyclically vulnerable period during a chunk of August ’25 – are in lockstep with a crescendo of War Cycles discussed in recent issues of INSIIDE Track. It remains to be seen if the two are linked…
Gold & Silver have rallied into late-July ’25 cycle highs with Gold poised to set a secondary high as Silver has fulfilled ongoing analysis for a surge to 39.50 – 40.10/SIU (ideally 39.70 – 39.75+/SIU, where range targets converge) while fulfilling its ~5-week low-low-low-low-(high; July 21 – 25, ’25) Cycle Progression.
Silver reached the primary upside objective for the projected ‘wave 5’ of this overall advance while attacking 4 of the latest 5 monthly LHRs – a powerful convergence of extreme upside monthly targets.
Silver also has a pair of range-trading targets at 39.50 – 40.00/SI that reinforce this upside target (~28.50 low – 34.10 high – ~39.70/SIU & ~28.50 low – ~32.25 low – ~36.00 high – ~39.75/SIU high).
Silver attacked and held its weekly LHR on July 11th, increasing the potential for a peak at this time.
At the same time, Gold has repeatedly found support at its rising weekly 21 High MAC but would need to now rally sharply to show that is still holding.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have mostly fulfilled projections for surges to new all-time highs after confirming multi-month bottoms in early-April ’25 – when they fulfilled major 1 – 2-year downside price targets and related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025 (projected 20 – 30+% plunges). That set what should be 6 – 12 month lows in sync with many bullish monthly indicators. This upside fulfillment could trigger a quick round of selling before a new advance (into late-2025/early-2026??) takes hold.
Subsequent cycle lows align in the second half of August ’25 and should usher in a new up cycle. (A new 16 – 18-week rally could begin in late-August and mature in late-2025.) Monthly & weekly trend indicators are positive and are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes. With this occurring near/after mid-year, it provides another bullish factor into late-2025.
Silver, Platinum & Palladium are fulfilling the convincing buy signals triggered in early-April – when 6 – 12 month (or 1 – 2 year) bottoms were projected. Silver, Platinum & Palladium are fulfilling its 2 – 3 month upside objectives as intermediate cycles peak (in late-July ’25).
Why Do New All-Time Highs Portend a Brief Sell-off in Stocks?
How Would Late-July ’25 Highs Reinforce Late-2025 Cycle Highs?
How High Can Stocks Surge After Fulfilling 17-Year Cycle Plunge?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.