Stocks Plunge into April 19th; Fulfill Projected Sell-off & Set Key Parameter.
04/22/24 – “Stock indexes are reinforcing potential multi-month peaks and fulfilling initial expectations from late-March reversals & sell signals. The first phase was projected to envelop the Month of Aggression – the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year, from March 20/21st into April 19th (Date of Aggression).
That is exactly what unfolded with the sell-off leading to Friday’s accelerated decline in AI and chip stocks. Proxy stocks like NVDA powerfully reinforced this outlook, signaling multi-week (or month) peaks on March 25th and triggering decisive reversal signals in the days that followed. That also projected sharp sell-offs into ~April 19th.
The Bigger Picture
On an intra-year basis, stocks are steadily creating a top in the same sequence that most peaks have taken place in the last ~10 years…
During this topping process, there is usually developing divergence – either between indexes or among key stocks within those indexes as fewer and fewer stocks are able to set successive higher highs. That had been the case leading into late-March 2024.
Along with many leading stocks (including TSLA & AAPL, which have been dropping all year), the indexes had been setting a series of divergent peaks since December 2023.
The NQ-100 had been in a topping process since the beginning of March after surging into late-Feb ’24 and fulfilling an ongoing ~2-month/~60-degree cycle and setting its highest daily close at that time. After retesting its high on March 21st, a drop into April 19/22 was projected.
That was corroborated by a newer ‘proxy stock’ (NVDA) – the driving force behind the 1Q ’24 rally – fulfilling multiple upside targets near 950, ushering in a likely 1 – 2 month (or longer) peak.
That fulfilled key range-trading targets, LLH objectives & the extreme upside price target (LHR) for 2024 – a combination of upside extreme levels.
It set its highest daily close at 950.02 while fulfilling projections for a peak on March 25th.
That projected an initial drop to 750 – 765/NVDA (range target, weekly HLS levels, monthly HLS, symmetrical wave targets, 20% decline, etc.)… In line with recent lows (Feb 21 & March 19), that stock also projected a drop into April 19th – the Date of Aggression…
The S+P Midcap rallied into early-April ’24 – finally reaching its multi-year upside target while fulfilling a ~14.5-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – connecting peaks in Sept ’20, Nov ’21, Feb ’23 and April 2024.
[Leading stocks like AMZN have a 33 – 34-month high (Dec ’15) – high (Sept ’18) – high (July ’21) – (high; April/May 2024) Cycle Progression that was also fulfilled.]
The next step was for initial sell-offs to take hold, turning daily trends & indicators down while signaling multi-week highs are intact. That occurred in late-March & early-April, generating the clearest sign a 1 – 2 month top was intact and increasing the likelihood for an initial plunge into the Date of Aggression (April 19th).
From a timing perspective, there was the key overriding factor that projected an initial plunge from March 20/21st into April 19th. As explained many times, that first ‘month’ of the Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times abrupt changes that influence the ensuing ~11 ‘months’.
With the DJIA & NQ-100 setting their intraday highs precisely on March 20/21st, it reinforced that unique period of time that had been discussed leading into that peak…
Stock Market Reversals & the Natural Year
Natural Year 2023/2024 came to a close on March 20, 2024 and was projected to usher in another significant shift in trend (to the downside) – beginning with an initial sell-off into April 19, 2024.
In March 2023, that Natural Year shift began a new stock market advance that continued until just recently – a 360-degree move.
In March 2022, that Natural Year shift ushered in decisive peak (and subsequent sell-off) that held for over a year. That peak was two 360-degree cycles ago. In conjunction with the recurring ~2-Year Cycle, March 2024 held some similarities. (The June 2022 lows could provide 2-Year Cycle reinforcement to the potential for a critical low in May/June 2024.)
In March 2021, that Natural Year shift began a new stock market advance with the corresponding low holding for almost 15 months. That, too, held a ~2-Year Cycle connection to the advance from March 2023.
In March 2020, that Natural Year shift timed the precise bottom in stock prices and began a new stock market advance that lasted ~4 years.
March 2024 timed a multi-month shift to the downside in line with expectations.
The Natural Year ‘Opening Range’
The first month of the Natural Year – from March 20/21 until April 19/20 – has an oversized impact on key markets during specific years.
2024 was set up to be one of them, based on a myriad of corroborating cycles and indicators!
That first ‘month’ (the ‘Month of Aggression’) leads into the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19th) and ultimately into the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – a time that has had a sometimes-dramatic impact on the markets, on America, and/or on the globe.
It is often a time of increased conflict or attacks – usually linked to corroborating cycles – and was forecast to see related occurrences in 2024. (The escalation of war between Israel & Iran corroborated that.) INSIIDE Track has detailed that correlation for over two decades and 2024 was forecast to provide another fulfillment…
Date of Aggression 2022…and Natural Year ’22/23
…The DJTA and Russell 2000 also turned their weekly trends down on April 19th – confirming multi-month peaks, ushering in initial lows, and simultaneously projecting a future decline after a brief, reactive bounce. The DJIA needs a weekly close below xx,xxx/DJIA to do the same.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders could have lightened up on long positions in March, anticipating a sell-off [reserved for subscribers]…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have fulfilled multi-week sell signals that projected an initial sharp decline into April 19th. That aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – the culmination of this pivotal transition period (the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year… the Month of Aggression). Weekly trend reversals in the weaker indexes should usher in a reactive multi-week bounce that could lead to another divergent peak before a new decline takes hold.
How Does The Drop into ~April 19th Influence the Rest of the Natural Year?
How Does This Correspond to 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines (and Related Analysis for 4Q ’24)?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.