Stocks Plunge into December 19th, Fulfilling Late-Nov Sell Signals; Jan 2025 = Next Threat.
12/19/24 – “Stock Indices are reacting to the latest Fed move… or at least to the latest Fed words, plunging in line with monthly, weekly & daily cycles. While it should be no surprise – given all the data that has been released in the past ~6 weeks (since the previous Fed meeting) – that the Fed is looking to slow the pace and amount of rate cuts, the market still reacted as if this was new news.
In contrast, the market is doing exactly what cycles and a host of already-described technical indicators anticipated with the majority of stocks and indexes peaking in late-November and projecting initial sharp declines into Dec 17 – 20th.
Stock indexes fulfilled 1 – 2 month upside targets and cycles on November 25th – as well as some multi-year cycles – adhering to the scenario described in early-October. The DJTA, Russell 2K & S+P Midcap all peaked right at their multi-month upside range (3400/IDX, 17,600/DJTA & 2460/QR) during the Nov 22/25th target cycle and turned down.
They generated multiple negative/sell signals in late-Nov/early-Dec and have consistently reinforced those signals in recent weeks – leading into December 18 – 20th, when an accelerated spike low was/is most likely.
The DJIA topped while fulfilling a ~4-week (25 – 28 day) low-low-low-(high) and a ~16-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and was projected to see an initial drop into Dec 16 – 19th… almost fulfilling the outlook for a multi-week drop to 41,600 – 41,800/DJIA.
Even 2024’s ‘tech darling’ – NVDA – peaked on Nov 7th (highest daily close) and created an intraday spike high on Nov 21st… and has since declined. Based on its daily 21 AND 40 MACs, that stock turned negative and entered its most vulnerable period (from a technical perspective) this week.
Since precisely fulfilling multi-month cycle highs on November 25th, the S+P Midcap 400 has declined on 13 out of the 17 days since then and already plunged to its first downside range-trading target (~3125/IDX). The DJTA has declined for 15 of those 17 days, dropping over 10% from its Nov 25th peak.
On December 18th, the DJIA extended its decline to 10 days straight for the first time since 1974 and the S+P advance/decline line dropped for 12 days in a row… as the Russell 2000 continued plummeting after mimicking the action of November 2021 and peaking exactly where it did 3 years ago!
Are these outliers? Or a warning of underlying weakness in the overall market?
Meanwhile, the DJIA is doing exactly what was forecast on December 7th when it was projected to see a sharp, multi-week drop into December 19th with a primary downside target at 41,600 – 41,800 (published while the DJIA was above 44,500):
12-07-24 – “The DJIA…peaked while fulfilling a ~4-week (25 – 28 day) low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and could see an initial drop into December 16 – 19th. A multi-week drop to 41,600 – 41,800/DJIA is becoming more likely.” — Dec 7, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay
That is merely the first downside target… These indexes are powerfully validating downside price targets and the outlook for an initial plunge into December 19/20th.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are fulfilling sell signals triggered in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 after they completed the outlook for surges into November 25th when the S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 were projected to set multi-month peaks near major upside range-trading targets at ~3400/IDX, ~17,600 & ~2460/QR.
They perfectly fulfilled those projections – both price AND time – consuming the final upside potential for 4Q 2024. That ushered in an initial dangerous 3 – 4 week period with its most precarious period on December 16 – 19th. A second ‘danger zone’ is expected to emerge in January.
The DJIA peaked shortly after the other indexes and quickly triggered new sell signals. The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities. Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying the next likely time frames when a second sharp sell-off is likely… in early-2025 (see publications for details).
How Would December 19th Low Corroborate January 2025 Outlook?
Why are Major Range Targets in DJTA, IDX AND RUT Validating a Multi-Month Top?
How Do 2025 Cycles of Attacks and Instability Reinforce This Potential?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.