Stocks Poised for Add’l Spike High & Correction; Russell 2K Affirming Cycle Inversion.
04/22/23 Weekly Re-Lay – “The markets completed the first month of the Natural Year (March 20/21 – April 19/20), setting important trading ranges that identify pivotal resistance and support levels. Grain markets, the ones that are most in sync with the Natural Year, reversed lower on April 19 and then sold off sharply. Soybeans and Corn could now accelerate lower.
Stock indexes rallied into the same time frame and set divergent highs. Bonds & Notes sold off into the same time frame as the Dollar is trying to confirm a low. The Euro is near recent highs as the Yen could soon accelerate lower. Energy markets fulfilled weekly/monthly cycle highs and reversed lower…
Stock Indices fulfilled the outlook for a second advance into the days surrounding the Date of Aggression (April 19). The DJTA led this latest rally and fulfilled the outlook for a rally into April 17 – 21, allowing it to perpetuate an ~11-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and complete a .618 rebound in time (47 weeks down, 29 weeks up)… while adhering to Natural Year cycles as well.
Many indexes, including the S+P 500, leave open the possibility for additional spike highs in the coming week. The action of their corresponding daily 21 MACs corroborate this…
On an intra-year trend basis, stock indexes remain mixed with the S+P 500 and NQ-100 remaining in intra-year uptrends while the DJIA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 are neutral…
Stock Indices are congesting near their intra-month highs with several pulling back to test – and quickly rebound from – their rising daily 21 High MACs. That should spur additional spike highs in the coming days… even if they are short-lived.”
Stock indexes are completing the first month of Natural Year 2023/24. The Russell 2000 – which has been the weakest index in recent months – illustrated this perfectly, fulfilling multi-month cycle lows on March 20 – 24, ‘23 (as well as a 3-Year Cycle from the March 20 – 24, ’20 low) and projecting a subsequent ~3-month rally (on balance) into mid-to-late-June ‘23.
It bottomed in perfect sync with the onset of the new Natural Year and is following a textbook scenario in which a low around March 20/21 (Vernal Equinox) sets the tone, trend, and trading range for the ensuing Natural Year… and spurs an initial rally into April 19/20. That becomes the opening range – and breakout resistance – for the months that follow. Weekly cycles in many indexes – converging on April 17 – 21 – corroborate that and portend initial highs at this time.
The NQ-100 and S+P 500 are still expected to see additional surge(s) in 2Q ’23 with the S+P 500 repeatedly validating analysis (first detailed in early-Jan ’23) for a rally to 4300 – 4350/ES.
How Do (Bullish) 4-Shadow Signals & Natural Year Analysis Concur?
What Does The Russell 2000 ~90-Degree Cycle Progression Portend for 2Q ‘23?
How Soon are Projected Tests of ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300 – 4350/ES Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.