Stocks Poised for April 4th/7th Bottom; Projected 17-Year Cycle Sell-off Fulfilled!
04/05/25 – “Stock indexes have initially fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for overall declines into late-March/early-April with most indexes projected to lose 20 – 25% in that time period. They are also tracing out a textbook monthly chart scenario for an impending low (test HLS, then LLS) – reinforcing the pivotal nature of cycle lows on April 3 – 7th…
Stock Indices are culminating their latest decline in spectacular fashion, reinforcing the impact of the 90/10 Rule of Cycles (in which a majority of a price move occurs at the end of a cycle). Since the start of 2025, the focus has been on March/April – and more specifically on late-March/early-April ’25 – as the most likely time for the culmination of multi-month stock plunges.
As described in February & March, stocks had a high potential to fulfill (minimum) 17-Year Cycle projections – for 20 – 25% declines – by/in April ’25 when an initial bottom was/is most likely. On a monthly chart basis, they have also traced out the ideal sequence for an impending multi-month low.
When a market is heading into a low (daily, wkly or monthly), it will usually accelerate to a HLS, hit and hold that level on the close, and then spike down to the LLS in the subsequent period. On a monthly basis, most every major index achieved that after plunging to monthly HLS levels in March ’25 (19,039/NQM, etc.) and setting the stage for a drop to the monthly LLS in April.
That LLS comes into play at 38,222/DJIA, 5165/ ESM, 17,267/NQM, 2637.25/IDX, 1824/QRM & 12,750/DJTA.
All of these were just tested on April 4th, in the midst of the ideal time for an early-April low. That was corroborated by a myriad of timing indicators focused on April 3 – 7, including a ~9-week/~2-month high-high-high-high-(low; April 1 – 7) Cycle Progression – in the DJIA & other indexes – and the ubiquitous ~8-month cycle from the August 5, ’24 low.
In the S+P 500, that ~8-month cycle (same cycle that projected the IDX Nov 22/25, ’24 peak) split into a symmetrical ~4-month/123-day low (Aug 5) – high (Dec 6) – (low; April 4/7th) cycle. The DJTA also completed a 2DGR retracement on April 3/4th while fulfilling the potential for the longest decline since 2022 (4-Shadow signal).
Stock indices plunged after setting lower highs on March 26th, fulfilling a convergence of intermediate cycles that projected a new multi-week decline. That was reinforced by the DJIA bouncing right to its multi-week upside targets at 42,801 – 42,907/DJIA – with most indexes bouncing to declining daily 21 High MACs and reversing lower – portending new sell-offs as the crescendo to multi-month declines.
A low on April 3rd/4th/7th would perpetuate a geometric ~1-month/~30-degree low-low cycle that already timed lows in 5 of the last 8 months.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are plunging into decisive cycle lows in early-April ’25 (April 3, 4 & 7th possess greatest synergy of cycles for completing 20 – 30% projected plunges) while fulfilling major downside price targets. This is confirmation of weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January and corresponding sell signals triggered on/after January 22/23rd and should usher in a multi-month bottom.
This drop into early-April should complete the initial 17-Year Cycle decline projected for this time frame.
What Would Early-April Bottom Portend for Rest of 2025?
Why are Monthly Trend & Monthly 21 MACs Reinforcing Potential Lows?
Will Any Index Make it Back to Highs?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.