Stocks Poised for Divergent Lows in Late-May & Mid-June; Mid-June (17/18th) ’24 = Cycle Low.
05/29/24 – “Stock Indices are confirming the onset of ‘c’ wave declines (in most indexes) that should last into June 17 – 28th… after peaking in mid-May and fulfilling intra-month uptrends. The Russell 2000 & DJTA also fulfilled recurring weekly cycles while setting lower highs in mid-May 2024… and have been (again) leading the downward reversal and providing ominous omens.
They validated the outlook for trouble beginning on May 17th – 24th with most indices & stocks peaking on May 14/15th and increasing the likelihood for an overall decline into/past mid-June ‘24.
On May 24th, the DJTA turned its intra-year trend down (giving a weekly close below its year-opening low) – reinforcing its bearish outlook and validating the significance of that date…
5-22-24 – “On a short-term basis, the DJIA, DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 have declined since their May 14/15th highs and could accelerate lower into May 24th. If so, that would just be the first (of 2 or 3) 1 – 2 week declines from the mid-May peak.”
…Today’s drop below the May 1st low completes an Intra-month Inverted V in the DJTA – another signal that projects follow-through selling into at least mid-June 2024.
Many indexes project lows on June 17 – 28th – the likely completion of ‘a-b-c’ (~3-month) corrections. The DJTA reinforced that with its May 14th high. If it now declines for ~34 days/~5 weeks (the same duration as its ~April decline), it would bottom around June 17/18th – coinciding with a ~30-degree/~1-month cycle timing lows on Jan 17, Feb 20, March 18/19 and April 17/18th.
From a timing perspective, no index had greater synergy of multi-month cycle highs converging in mid-May 2024 than the Russell 2000…
The Russell 2000 rallied into the latest phase of a ~1.5-month high-high cycle that had timed multi-week highs in late-Sept, mid-Nov. & late-Dec. ‘23 and then mid-Feb & late-March ’24… and projected a subsequent high in mid-May 2024 (see HCP diagram on page 1).
It rallied into mid-month – testing monthly, weekly & daily upside targets while perpetuating a ~9-month/40 – 41-week high (Jan ’22) – low (Oct 10-14 ’22) – high (July/ Aug ’23) – (high; May 6 – 17, 2024) Cycle Sequence.
At the same time, the Russell 2000 fulfilled a related 20 – 21-week high (Jan ’22) – high (May ’22) – low (Oct 10-14 ’22) – low (March ’23) – high (July/Aug ’23) – high (Dec ’23) – (high; May 10 – 17, 2024) Cycle Sequence while testing & holding the upper extreme of a 4 – 5 month trading range.
The Russell 2000 is expected to decline into June 19/ 20th – completing a 50% retracement in time (157 days up, 79 days down) while bottoming 2 months/ ~60 degrees from its April 19th low.
A decline into June 19/20th would also have the latest decline (since the May 15th cycle high) – a ‘c’ or ‘3’ wave decline, which is expected to exceed other waves – double the duration of the ‘a’ or ‘1’ wave decline…
The NQ-100 remains the strongest while the S+P 500 is close behind… but has twice neutralized its daily uptrend after peaking while holding upside targets, weekly extremes (LHRs) and major resistance.”
Stock Indexes are fulfilling the outlook for a new decline in the second half of May 2024. That should lead to initial lows in late-May and final/divergent lows in mid-June – the time when a multi-month bottom is most likely in most indexes – before rallies into July ‘24. June 17/18th is the ideal time (time with greatest synergy of corroborating cycles & timing indicators) for the end of this corrective period and the onset of new multi-week rallies.
The stronger NQ-100 remains positive and could/should adhere to the general intra-year parallel to 2007 (successive highs in 1Q ‘24, July ‘24, and then October ’24… similar to 2007). The DJTA has set new intra-year lows, increasing the potential for a multi-month low in mid-June ’24 (June 17 – 19th = greatest synergy of cycles for a bottom). The Russell 2000 concurs – with a decisive low expected on ~June 19/20th.
Why is Mid-June ’24 Cycle Low the Key to 3Q/4Q ’24 Outlook?
How Does This Reinforce 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast for July & October 2024?
Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Staglfation) Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.