Stocks Poised to Test ~2850/IDX, ~14,600/DJTA & 2000/QR Before Bottom (March 12/13th?) is Likely.
03/10/25 – “Stock indices remain on track for overall declines into late-March/early-April as part of a larger setback. That would provide intriguing parallels to 2020 and also to 2008… the previous phase of the 17-Year Cycle.
They turned their intra-month trends down as they initially fulfilled some initial downside price targets for this latest sell-off (from the Feb 18/19th projected highs). The DJIA attacked 41,700 – now seeing the 1Q ’25 decline equal the 4Q ’24 decline. (Based on current/future expectations, the DJIA should ultimately exceed that magnitude… whether it happens now or later.)
Today’s drop to ~41,700/DJIA has the DJIA retesting its late-Oct/early-Nov ’24 low – a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (that should ultimately be broken).
It also has turned the weekly 21 MAC down for the first time since October ’23. A spike down to (or below) the monthly HLS – at xx,xxx/DJIA – is a high probability as well.
Today’s drop also has the DJIA exceeding the magnitudes of the three previous multi-month declines (since the late-2022 low) – creating a higher-magnitude 4-Shadow signal.
Meanwhile, the S+P Midcap 400 still has room for additional downside… based on multiple factors:
The first involves the uncanny range-trading target in the S+P Midcap 400 – coming into play around 2850/IDX. That is also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a culminating rally), reinforcing its significance…
[Related charts – detailing the range-trading objectives in the S+P Midcap 400 and Russell 2000 were published in November & December ’24 INSIIDE Track & Weekly Re-Lay publications.]…
From a timing perspective, several indexes are now fulfilling weekly timing indicators…
The DJIA has also been targeting a convergence of cycle lows that were arguing for this sell-off to stretch this decline into the current week.
The DJIA could trace out a flat ‘a-b-c’ correction in which the ‘c’ wave decline (from the Jan 31st high) would equal the duration of the ‘a’ wave decline (Dec 4 – Jan 10/13). That would take it down into March 10 – 12th – bottoming 2 months from the Jan 10/13th low. (Other indexes have similar wave-timing objectives focused on March 11/12th.)
The NQ-100 has similar cycles after spending the last few months tracing out a textbook Turn-Key Reversal, culminating with the February outside-month/2 Close Reversal lower.
A low on March 10 – 14th would have that index fulfilling a .618 retracement in time (19 weeks up, 12 weeks down) and a related ~31-week/~7-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
The S+P Midcap, by extending its decline into the current week, is completing successive ~7-week declines.
A low in the current week is also consistent with the DJTA outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signal – and the latest phase of a textbook weekly 21 MAC Reversal sequence – generated on February 18 – 21st.
That signal usually triggers a 2 – 3 week decline, which has now stretched into March 10 – 14th… the ideal week for an initial low.
If it sets a low this week, the DJTA would complete a .618 retracement in time (24 weeks up/14 – 15 weeks down).
That could, however, still entail a test of ~14,600/DJTA before a bottom is set. That objective includes monthly AND weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) as well as the low from 2024… a type of 4th wave of lesser degree support (even if the surrounding waves do not provide the textbook structure).
A drop to that level would also provide symmetry between the two declines since the Nov ’24 peak (‘c’ = ‘a’ down). It would also include a 50% retracement of the entire 2022 – 2024 advance.
The Russell 2000 has related downside targets near 2000/QR.
For now, stock indexes remain negative and could still see additional spike lows in the coming days.
From a much broader perspective, a few other cyclic factors should be reiterated:
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin… a market that has exhibited a close connection to specific stock indexes.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception).
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
From a much broader perspective, there are some unusual (though limited) parallels between the current markets and a key aspect of the 1920’s and a different (key) aspect of the 1990’s. This was discussed in the Feb 19 & 26, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alerts and the March ’25 INSIIDE Track.
If a 1 – 2 month low is set in the March/April time frame… it would add another level of corroboration to future cycles bottoming in July ’25 [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are fulfilling projections for acceleration lower in March ’25, expected to extend into March 12/13th before a multi-week low would become more likely (if downside targets are hit). They are confirming the major peaks projected for Nov 22/25, 2024 (in S+P Midcap 400 & related indexes) and the subsequent/secondary highs projected for ~January 22nd – a multi-month topping process.
That was/is expected to prepare the way for sharper declines into March ’25 and confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift. That would validate weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January and portending a larger-magnitude sell-off after January 22/23rd. Downside targets near 2850/IDX, 14,600/DJTA & 2000/QRM should be tested before a multi-week low becomes more likely.
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major (multi-month & multi-quarter) peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline in stocks. It also continues to project a recession AND stagflation in 2025/2026. Corroborating that, the DJIA is revealing eerie parallels to late-2007/early-2008 and providing a roadmap for future expectations.
Can Major Indexes Attack 2 – 3 Month Downside Targets by/on March 12/13th?
Would a Test of Those Targets Signal a Multi-Week Bottom?
Will Indexes Attack Multi-Month Targets (2850/IDX, 2000/QR, etc.) by Mid-March?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.