Stocks Portend Late-July ’25 (Multi-Week) High & 2 – 3 Week Pullback.
07-16-25 – “Stock Indices sold off and then consolidated after fulfilling projections for a rally into July 3rd. That was expected to spur a quick multi-day sell-off, capable of reaching weekly HLS levels. The past two weeks HLS levels are at 43,435 – 43,812/DJIA, 6159 – 6207/ESU & 22,339 – 22,456/NQU.
More importantly, those ~July 3rd highs were projected to be penultimate highs – the highs before the ultimate highs – and ultimately lead to higher highs in late-July ’25.
Based on the weekly trend patterns & related cycles, stocks were expected to hold those July 3rd highs for 2 – 3 weeks even as they prepared to rally to higher highs into late-July ’25 and fulfill a ~35-week high (late-July ‘23) high (late-Mar ’24) – high (late-Nov ’24) – (high; July 24 – 31) Cycle Progression.
That ~35-week cycle is the recurring ~8-month cycle that helped pinpoint April 3rd – 7th as the most likely time for a multi-month bottom… 8 months from the early-August ’24 low.
It also helped pinpoint the late-Nov ’24 peak in multiple indexes, fulfilling an ~8-month high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-Mar ’24) – (high; late-Nov ’24) Cycle Progression.
An overall rally into late-July ‘25 would also fulfill wave symmetry with the culminating rallies in the latest two advances – in Aug – Nov ’24 & April – late July ’25 – each lasting 16 weeks in duration.
The S+P Midcap 400 – the index that led this year’s ’17-Year Cycle’ sell-off when it peaked in late-Nov ’24 – has experienced intermediate advances of 16 – 18 weeks on 3 previous occasions since its Oct ’22 low. This would be the 4th time and complete 4 of 5 similar rallies lasting the same duration… since Oct ’22.
From a broader perspective, these continued advances are fulfilling the overall outlook (since April) for many stock indexes to rally from their April 7th lows to new all-time highs (as a result of multiple monthly indicators discussed in April ’25).
One of the most important, and telling, indicators in that analysis was the monthly trend indicator that could not turn down during the sell-offs into early April ’25. That projected a subsequent rally to new all-time highs.
In the near term, the intra-month trends (and month-opening low support) were expected to play a key role in clarifying what to expect in the coming weeks. These indexes could not turn their intra month trends down, leaving their overall uptrends fully intact – anticipating this late-July rally.
If an intermediate peak is set in late-July, fulfilling this ongoing analysis, it would likely spur a sharp 2 – 3 week decline into the second half of August ’25 – and fulfill an overlapping ~19-week high-low-(low; Aug 20 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression – linked to the Nov ’24 – April ’25 declines in a majority of the major indexes. (The weekly trends – at the fulfillment of that decline – would be the key to what should follow in the equity markets.).
On a near-term basis, only the S+P Midcap 400 (again leading the way) has approached its weekly HLS level as most of the indexes held intra-month trend support, daily trend support, and their rising daily 21 High MACs… and reversed higher today. That is likely to spur rallies to new highs.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are convincingly fulfilling projections for surges to new all-time highs after confirming multi-month bottoms in early-April ’25 – when they fulfilled major 1 – 2-year downside price targets and related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025 (projected 20 – 30+% plunges) and set what should be 6 – 12 month lows. A large group of monthly indicators projected subsequent rallies to new all-time highs – with multi-month cycle highs focused first on late-July ’25 and then on late-2025/early-2026.
Late-July ’25 could produce a multi-week high with subsequent cycle lows aligning in the second half of August ’25. Monthly & weekly trend indicators are positive and are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in the S+P 500 & NQ-100. With this occurring near/after mid-year, it provides another bullish factor into late-2025.
Silver, Platinum & Palladium fulfilled ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April, triggering convincing buy signals that were followed by powerful surges. Silver is targeting a rally above 39.50/SI while Platinum is projected to reach ~1500/PL, at a minimum. Platinum & Palladium remain on track for surges into late-July ’25 as well. Intermediate highs are likely in the coming weeks.
Why Did/Do Key Indexes Project New All-Time Highs?
How Significant are Late-July ’25 Cycle Highs in Stocks & Silver?
How High Can Stocks Surge After Fulfilling 17-Year Cycle Plunge?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.