Stocks Positive into October 17/18th, Then Late-November; S+P 400 to Lead Way Higher

10/09/24 – “Stock Indices remain positive with the DJTA & Russell 2000 correcting (but not turning their daily trends down) while the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 headed progressively higher.  The S+P Midcap 400 is trading similarly.

The DJTA has traced out an entire ‘a-b-c’ decline without turning its daily trend down, a sign that it could be ready to embark on a new rally into late-October – when its ~1.5-month cycle recurs.  An initial high could be seen on October 17/18th.

That dovetails with the primary (geometric) cycle in focus in the DJIA… that comes back into play in mid-October 2024.  A ~3-month cycle dates back to its mid-October ’22 bottom, after which it timed peaks in January, April & July 2023.

That was followed by a ~3-month decline into the middle half of October ’23 – when another 6 – 12 month bottom was set.  From there, the DJIA traced out a ~3-month/~13-week low – low (Jan 17) – low (Apr 17) – high (July 17/18, ’24) Cycle Progression – projecting a future peak for the middle of October… ideally October 17/18, 2024.

A corroborating ~10-week low-low-(high?) and ~5-week low-low-(high?) Cycle Progression also converge during the week of October 14 – 18, ’24.

Similar to the DJTA, the S+P Midcap 400 has stronger synergy of cycles near month-end (as compared to mid-month).

This could be showing that stocks will see a rally into October 14 – 21st (greatest synergy on Oct 17, 18 & 21) followed by a brief pullback and then a late-month rally…

Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon.

Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.  If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:

• ~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
• ~8-month/34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-March ’24) – (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
• ~4-month/~17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
• ~2-month/~8 – 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
• ~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
• ~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression…  *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 – 18th.
• Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 – Jan ’20, Mar ’20 – Apr ’21, June ’22 – July ’23, Oct ’23 – November 2024).

So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.

The S+P Midcap 400 remains in a bullish setup after setting multiple peaks at 3120 – 3140/IDX.  The latest spurred a brief pullback that twice neutralized (but did not turn down) the daily uptrend while setting successive lows at the rising daily 21 High MAC and reversing higher repeatedly (without turning the intra-month trend down).

All those factors are likely to spur a breakout higher that could see a quick, accelerated rally into October 17 – 21st (possibly month-end).

On a 1 – 2 month basis, the NQ-100 has wave objectives converging near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ… New monthly resistance aligns near the same level and the recent lows created a corroborating Intermediate LLH.

Bottom Line – Stock indexes are set up for a new rally…”    TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK

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Stock Indexes remain strong and are reinforcing future cycles in mid-October & late-November 2024.  The NQ-100 is showing signs of lagging that could impact the levels for the next significant peak, which is likely to occur near 21,200/NQZ.  The 17-Year Cycle remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities but price action needs to hone when and where that is most likely.

Many indicators are projecting a new rally into October 17/18th – when a multi-week high is likely.  At least one related cycle reinforces future focus on late-November for a subsequent peak.  The ~5-week/~37-day cycle portends a subsequent peak on/around November 22/25th.  Late-October action should corroborate.

 

How are Cycle Highs in Mid-October & late-November ’24 Connected?

What Does the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Portend?

Will This Coincide with Election Cycles and the Outlook for US Dollar?

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.