Stocks Project Late-Feb/early-March Plunges; DJIA Likely to Reach/Breach 41,700 Support!
02/28/25 – “Stock Indices remain on track for overall declines into late-March/early-April as part of a larger setback. While that is based on current cycles & indicators, a drop into late-March would also provide intriguing parallels to 2020 and, of greater import, to 2008… the previous phase of the 17-Year Cycle.
At that time, the DJIA began with a 15 – 16-week decline into its initial low. A drop into late-March ’25 would replicate that.
Stock indexes continue to sell off as part of overall declines that could/should last into late-March/early-April ’25. On a monthly basis, the NQ-100 traced out a textbook Turn-Key Reversal, culminating with the February ‘25 outside-month/2 Close Reversal lower. It dropped back to its pre-Election levels while attacking intra-year trend, weekly HLS, 21 MAC & 21 MARC support levels.
The DJIA is reinforcing a critical support zone, the primary downside objective for this sell-off. That involves mimicking the magnitude of three previous declines, two of which took place near the beginning of this uptrend (from Sept ’22).
In both of the earlier cases – Dec ’22 – Mar ’23 & July – Oct ’23 – the DJIA declined ~3,300 points over a ~3-month period. The DJIA came close to repeating that price drop in Dec ’24 (in much less time) and could do it again with a drop to ~41,700/DJIA. There are other reasons why that is an increased probability…
- A drop to ~41,700/DJIA would have the DJIA completing a ‘flat’ (2 highs and 2 lows near each other) correction with the 1Q ’25 decline equaling the 4Q ’24 decline.
- A drop to ~41,700/DJIA would have the DJIA retesting its late-Oct/early-Nov ’24 low – a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support.
- The current weekly 21 Low MARC and the weekly 21 Low MARCs in late-March/early-April are all surrounding ~41,700/DJIA.
- The rising weekly 40 Low MAC should be at ~41,700 during the 3rd/4th weeks of March ’25.
- Weekly HLS levels now surround 41,700.
As with any target or support zone, the key factor is what the market does at that level. ~41,700/DJIA should also be viewed as a pivotal breakdown point. If the DJIA drops/closes below it, that would be indicating a higher-level decline and potential acceleration lower.
The DJIA has its March HLS near 41,100, close to where previous highs were set in July ’24 (resistance turned into support). The rising monthly 21 High MAC will be nearby in April ’25.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are in a time of projected bearishness – in late-Feb/early-March ’25 – when all are projecting 2 – 4 week drops with acceleration lower still forecast for March ’25. They are confirming the major peaks projected for Nov 22/25, 2024 (in S+P Midcap 400 & related indexes) and the subsequent/secondary highs projected for ~January 22nd – a multi-month topping process.
That was/is expected to prepare the way for sharper declines into March ’25 and confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift. That would validate weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered on January 10/13th. Coinciding with that, Bitcoin projected a major peak for January 2025 and is signaling a sharp drop into the first half of March ’25.
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major (multi-month & multi-quarter) peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline in stocks. It also continues to project a recession AND stagflation in 2025/2026. Corroborating that, the DJIA is revealing eerie parallels to late-2007/early-2008 and providing a roadmap for future expectations.
What are Parallels – AND Contrasts – Between 1920’s, 1990’s & 2020’s?
How Would Late-Feb/Early-March Plunges in Equities & Cryptos Reinforce Connections?
What ‘Shadows’ Do Weekly Trend & 4-Shadow Signals Cast Ahead for Stocks in 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.