Stocks Project Lower Lows in April ‘25; Prepare for Intervening Peak This Week!
03/24/25 – “Stock indexes have rebounded in sync with intermediate price & cycle expectations after dropping sharply into mid-March with multiple indexes reaching multi-month downside targets while bottoming during daily & weekly cycle lows on March 12/13th. At the time, many indexes also attacked and held weekly HLS levels – the extreme downside targets for that time frame…
In several cases, these downside targets stem from the November 22, ’24 peaks and subsequent sell signals – making them even more significant…
The S+P Midcap 400 attacked its 3 – 6 month downside target (2850/IDX) on March 13, fulfilling its primary 1Q ’25 downside objective and setting the stage for a quick rebound.
That low came exactly 2 months from the Jan 13th low and fulfilled an uncanny range-trading target – discussed in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 – and also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support, increasing the likelihood for a multi-week low to take hold. That also fulfilled a primary downside wave target, described in the Weekly Re-Lay.
[Related charts – detailing the range-trading downside target – were published in Nov & Dec ’24 INSIIDE Tracks & Weekly Re-Lays.]
The Russell 2000 had related downside targets near 2000/QR (1985 – 2015/QRM), which were fulfilled when it spiked down to 2002/QRM on March 13th and signaled a (minimum) 1 – 2 week bottom.
The low on March 13/14th also had the NQ-100 fulfilling a .618 retracement in time (19 weeks up, 12 weeks down) and a related ~31-week/~7-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… as the IDX completed successive ~7-week declines (wave symmetry).
At the same time, the DJTA fulfilled its outside-week/2 Close Reversal (~3-week) sell signal generated on Feb 21st. The DJTA completed a .618 retracement in time (24 wks up/14 – 15 wks down) after attacking its multi-month downside price target at ~14,600/DJTA, fulfilling monthly AND weekly extreme downside targets (HLS), symmetry between the two declines (‘c’ = ‘a’), and a 50% retracement of the entire 2022 – ’24 rally. All of this set the stage perfectly for a March 12/13th low and the onset of a multi-week reactive rally.
Those lows were expected to spur a quick rally to key price levels with the potential to peak in the current week when a ~17-week/~4-month high-high-high-(high; Mar 24 – 28) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of an over-over-arching ~35-week/~8-month high-high-high-(high; Nov 25 – 29, ‘24) Cycle Progression (next phase is in late-July ’25 and could time a future low) next peak…
From a much broader perspective, a few other cyclic factors should be reiterated:
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin… a market that has exhibited a close connection to specific stock indexes.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception).
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major bottom in the US Dollar Index and has been forecast to time a sharp drop in the Dollar – leading into a late-2025 bottom. That projected Dollar weakness could be both a cause and a consequence of declining stock prices.
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
From a much broader perspective, there are some unusual (though limited) parallels between the current markets and a key aspect of the 1920’s and a different (key) aspect of the 1990’s. This was discussed in the Feb 19 & 26, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alerts and the March ’25 INSIIDE Track.
If a 1 – 2 month low is set in the March/April time frame – in line with that has been detailed since late-November ’24 – it would add another level of corroboration to future cycles bottoming in July ’25.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are poised for a rebound peak and the onset of a new sell-off in the coming days – projected to carry them to lower lows into early-April ‘25. This is expected to add confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift – validating weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January (portending a larger-magnitude sell-off after January 22/23rd). A new drop into early-April would reinforce July ’25 cycles and fulfill what has been detailed in Weekly Re-Lay analysis:
3-05-25 – “In either case, the stronger focus is on late-March/early-April ’25 – when a more significant low has been projected to take hold. In the interim, a review of some key price objectives is warranted. The first involves the uncanny range-trading target in the S+P Midcap 400 – coming into play around 2850/IDX. That is also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a culminating rally), reinforcing its significance.
The related high (Dec ’23) and lows (April & Aug ’24) are at 2810 – 2817/IDX – so that is a more likely downside target/support for this decline… Reinforcing that, the rising monthly 21 Low MAC is around 2785 and could reach ~2810 in April ’25…. The monthly HLS (extreme downside target for March ’25) is at 2803/IDX.” — March 5, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
What Would Imminent Stock Market Peak Portend for 2Q 2025?
How Low is Next Decline Likely to Fall?
Why is S+P Midcap Likely to Drop Below 2800/IDX in April ‘25?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.