Stocks Project Quick Drop into Nov 4/5th Cycle Lows; Election Omen?
10/30/24 – “Throughout most of 2024, late-October (through early-November) ’24 has been expected to usher in a dramatic shift in many markets… From a fundamental perspective, there are even more transitional (or destabilizing) possibilities for the coming week(s). Here are just a few of the questions on many traders’ minds:
- Who will win the US Election?
- How soon will that winner be ascertained (since prolonged uncertainty could rattle markets)?
- Will the Fed continue lowering rates?
- Will China add new stimulus next week?
- Will Iran respond to Israel’s response?
- When will Iran respond to Israel’s response?
All of those questions could be answered by November 8th… or not.
And each of those potentially-shifting markets could react just as quickly… whether it is a ‘one-off’ event or the start of a much larger downtrend. All of those fundamentals could reinforce one critical cycle…
The 17-Year Cycle has been a primary focus in INSIIDE Track publications for the past year in an attempt to prepare readers for significant shifts expected to take hold in late-2024.
Two of the primary things the 17-Year Cycle has timed – with uncanny consistency – are stock market peaks (and subsequent sell-offs of a higher magnitude) and Middle East conflict.
Both are in full display in October 2024 – exactly 17 years from the major stock market peak of October 2007. That followed 17-Year Cycle stock market peaks in 1990, 1973, 1956 & 1939. Each was followed by at least 20% sell-offs and some were followed by 45 – 50% plunges…
If it can drop below 41,831/DJIA tomorrow (Oct 31), the DJIA would complete an Intra-Month Inverted V Reversal lower (low at beginning of month, high at mid-month, lower low at month-end). Other indexes could do the same by dropping below their early-October lows… The daily trend pattern and daily 21 MAC, in other indexes, are also arguing for a new sell-off.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are reinforcing projections for declines into cycle lows on November 4/5th. A new sell-off is likely in the opening days of the new month. The S+P 500 recently attacked and held its weekly HLS, signaling that a 1 – 2 month low should take hold in the week(s) that follow… corroborating early-November cycle lows.
The S+P Midcap 400 and related indexes are showing that small and mid-cap stocks are likely to lead a new surge into late-November ’24 after the developing sell-off bottoms. The 17-Year Cycle remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities.
How Low Could Drop into November 4/5th Reach?
Why is S+P Midcap 400 Poised to Lead Surge into Late-November?
What Does the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Portend?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.