Stocks Rallying on Good News; Could Trade War Surprise Create Next Sell-off? Aug. ’19 Decline Projected as Part of 3Q ’19 Danger Period.
06/19/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices are just one of many markets focused on the three-day period of June 20 – 24. That is when they are most likely to complete the latest phase of their overall outlook for 2Q 2019. Gold is another with the 90/10 Rule of Cycles poised to spur a new surge.
In general, the equity outlook has been for a multi-month rally – from weekly, monthly & yearly cycle lows in late-Dec. ’18 – into late-April/early-May ’19 – when weekly & monthly cycles converged.
That was expected to usher in a corrective phase that would last into 3Q ’19 and produce the next decisive low in Aug. (possibly Sept.) 2019.
Equities peaked in late-April/early-May with key (leading) indices triggering multi-week sell signals on April 26. That led to an initial drop into May 31 (enough time to allow the weekly trends in all three major indexes to turn down), after which a multi-week reactive bounce was projected…
Stocks are fulfilling that multi-week bounce and have now entered the most decisive period with regard to the outlook for May – Aug./Sept. 2019…
With Fed uncertainty now out of the way, the focus turns back to trade wars & tariffs… and the impact they are having (will have) on the economy.
Currently, the news is relatively good (i.e. planned meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at G-20 meeting on June 28/29) and is supporting the market. The flipside is what would happen if any news (or tweets) came out that challenged that thinking.”
Stocks casting shadows ahead to Aug. ‘19 for sharper decline. 40-Year Cycle & 4-Year Cycle project increasing trouble in/around Aug. ‘19… with a Aug. ’15-style sell-off likely! Why is 3Q ’19 so dangerous?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.