Stocks Rebounding But Prepare for Late-March Plunge; ~42,800/DJIA Could Set Rebound Top.
03/20/25 – “Stock Indices dropped sharply into mid-March with multiple indexes reaching multi-month downside targets while bottoming in sync with daily & weekly cycle lows surrounding March 12/13th…
By themselves, those factors do not assure that a multi-month bottom is intact. Stock indexes could still see lower lows in late-March or anytime in April and continue to provide intriguing parallels to 2020 and also to 2008 (the previous phase of the 17-Year Cycle).
They do however, show that 1 – 2 week lows – at the very least – were likely set in lockstep with the fulfillment of all those targets… many of them stemming from the February 18th highs and related sell signals. In several cases, these downside targets stem from the November 22, ’24 peaks and subsequent sell signals – making them even more significant…
The S+P Midcap 400 attacked its 3 – 6 month downside target (2850/IDX) on March 13, fulfilling its primary 1Q ’25 downside objective and setting the stage for a quick rebound.
That low came exactly 2 months from the Jan 13th low and fulfilled an uncanny range-trading target – discussed in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 – and also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support, increasing the likelihood for a multi-week low to take hold.
[Related charts – detailing this range-trading downside target were published in Nov & Dec ’24 INSIIDE Tracks & Weekly Re-Lays.]
That also had the IDX reaching the point where the latest decline – from the Feb 18/19th peak – equaled 1.272 (2DGR) times the magnitude of the initial late–Nov-through-mid-January decline – the ideal initial downside target for a decline that is part of a developing bear market.
The Russell 2000 had related downside targets near 2000/QR (1985 – 2015/QRM), which were fulfilled when it spiked down to 2002/QRM on March 13th and signaled a (minimum) 1 – 2 week bottom.
The low on March 13/14th also had the NQ-100 fulfilling a .618 retracement in time (19 weeks up, 12 weeks down) and a related ~31-week/~7-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… as the IDX completed successive ~7-week declines (wave symmetry).
At the same time, the DJTA fulfilled its outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signal – and weekly 21 MAC Reversal sequence – both generated on Feb 18 – 21st. In setting the recent low, the DJTA completed a .618 retracement in time (24 wks up/14 – 15 wks down) after attacking its multi-month downside price target while spiking below 14,600/DJTA.
That objective included monthly AND weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) as well as the low from 2024… a type of 4th wave of lesser degree support on a longer-term basis.
The drop to that level provided symmetry between the two declines since the Nov ’24 peak (‘c’ = ‘a’ down). It also included a 50% retracement of the entire 2022 – 2024 advance.
The NQ-100 had similar cycles projecting a multi-week low last week. After spending the last few months tracing out a textbook Turn-Key Reversal, that culminated with the February outside-month/2 Close Reversal lower, the NQ-100 projected an initial low on March 10 – 14th.
The projected low on March 11 – 13th would have that index fulfilling a .618 retracement in time (19 weeks up, 12 weeks down) and a related ~31-week/~7-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… precisely when the NQ-100 set its recent low.
Those lows were expected to spur a quick rally to key levels with the potential to peak as early as March xx, fulfilling various daily & weekly cycles including the S+P Midcap 400 ~8-week low-low-low-low-high-high Cycle Progression that timed the Nov ’24 & Jan ’25 peaks.
An over-arching ~17-week/~4-month high-high-high-(high; Mar 24 – 28) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of an over-over-arching ~35-week/~8-month high-high-high-(high; Nov 25 – 29, ‘24) Cycle Progression (next phase is in late-July ’25 and could time a future low) argue for a rebound peak to wait until next week.
Short-term cycles in the NQ-100 & S+P 500 corroborate that and are honing the precise time for a likely peak.
From a much broader perspective, a few other cyclic factors should be reiterated:
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin… a market that has exhibited a close connection to specific stock indexes.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception).
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
From a much broader perspective, there are some unusual (though limited) parallels between the current markets and a key aspect of the 1920’s and a different (key) aspect of the 1990’s. This was discussed in the Feb 19 & 26, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alerts and the March ’25 INSIIDE Track.
If a 1 – 2 month low is set in the March/April time frame, it would add another level of corroboration to future cycles bottoming in July ’25.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are rebounding after fulfilling projections for sharp plunges into March 12/13th. That was/is expected to add confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift – validating weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January (portending a larger-magnitude sell-off after January 22/23rd). Another drop into late-March/early-April is still very likely and would reinforce July ’25 cycles.
The DJIA is expected to peak near ~42,800, where a myriad of 1 – 2 week upside targets & resistance levels converge. That would usher in the time for another plunge that is likely to take stocks to new lows into early-April, in sync with repeated Weekly Re-Lay analysis:
3-05-25 – “In either case, the stronger focus is on late-March/early-April ’25 – when a more significant low has been projected to take hold. In the interim, a review of some key price objectives is warranted. The first involves the uncanny range-trading target in the S+P Midcap 400 – coming into play around 2850/IDX. That is also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a culminating rally), reinforcing its significance.
The related high (Dec ’23) and lows (April & Aug ’24) are at 2810 – 2817/IDX – so that is a more likely downside target/support for this decline… Reinforcing that, the rising monthly 21 Low MAC is around 2785 and could reach ~2810 in April ’25…. The monthly HLS (extreme downside target for March ’25) is at 2803/IDX.” — March 5, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Have 2 – 3 Month Downside Targets & March 12/13th Cycle Lows Ushered in Initial Low?
How High (and How Long) Could Subsequent Rebound Reach?
What Would S+P Midcap Drop Below 2800/IDX Mean for 2Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.