Stocks Rebounding; Poised for New Sell-off into late-May – mid-June.

05/03/24 – “Stock Indices completed the first stage, and are tracing out the second stage, of what is expected to be a 2 – 3 month sell-off after fulfilling multi-year upside price targets and cycles in all six indexes.  In Elliott terms, they are in a likely ‘b’ wave bounce – sandwiched between an initial ‘a’ wave decline and a future (potentially sharper) ‘c’ wave plunge.

The ‘a’ wave sell-off fulfilled analysis for an initial drop from late-March into April 19th – enveloping the Month of Aggression (leading into the Date of Aggression)… This reinforces the outlook for a substantial drop in March – May/June 2024 – fulfilling a 50 – 51-month low (Oct 2011) – low (Jan 2016) – low (March 2020) – (low; May/June 2024Cycle Progression

If the DJIA & DJTA match the duration of previous (primary) declines – lasting ~3 months/~13 weeks – they could see an overall drop into mid-June 2024.  That is intriguing since a decline into mid-June ’24 would perfectly fulfill another phase of the ~2-Year Cycle – tied to the initial lows set in mid-June 2022.

The DJIA needs a weekly close below 37,611/ DJIA to turn its weekly trend down.  If it spikes up to ~39,050 and reverses lower on May xx, the DJIA would fulfill/reinforce multiple forms of symmetry.

The first would be completing a similar rally – in price AND magnitude – as it did in March ’24.  There is a reason for this type of wave relationship that will be reiterated separately.  The second would be the DJIA setting a secondary peak at the exact midpoint of the ~3-month cycle just discussed… increasing the likelihood for a subsequent drop into June ‘24.

Stock Indices are entering the 3rd week after a pair of indicators (weekly trend & HLS) helped time the April 19th low while projecting a multi-week reactive bounce to follow.  That bounce usually lasts 2 – 3 weeks, so equities are right on schedule…

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders could have exited a portion of long positions in March, anticipating a sell-off that could stretch into late-May or even mid-June 2024.  The Weekly Re-Lay will update changes and signals in the shorter-term trends.”  


Stock Indexes fulfilled multi-week sell signals that projected a sharp decline into April 19th… the completion of Natural Year 2024/25’s ‘Opening Range’.  That now becomes pivotal support for all the indexes in the months to come.  They remained in intra-year uptrends through this decline but are still likely – at least in some indexes – to spike down to lower lows in May/June before a bottom is set.

Other indexes are likely to set higher lows during these future cycle lows.  The stronger NQ-100 remains positive (see related 17-Year Cycle analysis and what that could mean for 3Q/4Q 2024) and could/should adhere to the general intra-year parallel to 2007 (highs in 1Q, July, and then October ’24… similar to 2007).  The DJTA is leading this ‘a-b-c’ correction and could stretch a low into mid-June ’24 before reversing higher.

 

How Do ~April 19th Lows Influence the Rest of the Natural Year?

How Does This Correspond to 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks & Declines?

Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.