Stocks Reinforce April 7th Cycle Lows; 17-Year Cycle & Monthly Indicators Portend New Surge!
04/17/25 – Stock Indices were mostly (slightly) positive today with one BIG exception being the 2nd-heaviest weighted stock in the DJIA – UNH. It plunged ~22% on Medicare and cost-related fears and dragged the DJIA down with it. Meanwhile, the S+P 500 & NQ-100 closed near unchanged as the Russell 2000, S+P Midcap & DJTA closed slightly higher.
From a technical perspective, very little changed so there is not much new to add to ongoing analysis. Every day these indexes hold above their April 7th lows is a slightly higher chance that an intermediate bottom is intact.
Equities are tracing out a bottom with the S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 remaining fairly resilient during today’s DJIA drop and yesterday’s tech sell-off. Both of them, as well as the NQ-100 & DJTA, dropped to their daily HLS levels (extreme downside daily targets) on April 16th and held. That portends an imminent new 1 – 2 week low… that could already be intact. To reiterate…
The S+P 500 remains in the upper third of their rebound range while the DJIA & NQ-100 are near the midpoint of their post-April 7th rally ranges. All of that near-term action is in the context of the broader, 3 – 6 month action and analysis:
Stock indexes fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for 20 – 25% (or larger) declines into early-April while tracing out a textbook monthly chart scenario for 1 – 2 month lows (test monthly HLS in March ’25, then test monthly LLS in April ‘25).
All of that reinforced the decisive nature of cycle lows on April 3 – 7th, when most stocks bottomed. Initial rebounds into April 17/21st were/are expected (with a high probability of extending into April 24/25).
Since the start of 2025, the focus has been on March/April – more specifically on late-March/early-April ’25 – as the most likely time for the culmination of multi-month stock plunges. The price expectations were also stressed repeatedly…
As described in February & March, stocks had become increasingly likely to fulfill (minimum) 17-Year Cycle projections – for 20 – 25% declines – by/in early-April ’25 when an initial bottom was/is most likely. That is why a pair of plunges were projected to follow the late-February reversal signals.
That was corroborated by a myriad of timing indicators projecting sell-offs into April 3 – 7, including a ~9-week/~2-month high-high-high-high-(low; April 1 – 7) Cycle Progression – in the DJIA, DJTA & other indexes – and the ubiquitous ~8-month cycle from the August 5, ’24 low.
In the S+P 500, that ~8-month cycle (same cycle that projected the IDX Nov 22/25, ’24 peak) split into a symmetrical ~4-month/123-day low (Aug 5) – high (Dec 6) – (low; April 4/7th) cycle.
The DJTA also completed a 2DGR retracement while fulfilling the potential for the longest decline since 2022 (a higher magnitude 4-Shadow, which is actually confirmation of an impulse wave down).
In setting recent lows, the S&P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 plunged to decisive range-trading targets (first illustrated in November ’24) while the DJTA, described as being in a more bearish setup, was projected to see a larger decline and reached the 30% decline threshold in sync with those early-April cycle lows…
Weekly LHR levels and other indicators are corroborating that potential with the Russell 2000 building growing synergy of upside targets and over-hanging resistance levels at [reserved for subscribers]” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes plunged into decisive cycle lows in early-April ’25 (April 3, 4 & 7th possessed greatest synergy of cycles for completing 20 – 30% projected plunges) while fulfilling major downside price targets and 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025.
Their monthly trend patterns, monthly 21 MACs & MARCs, monthly (and weekly) cycles, monthly downside objectives & 6 – 12 month support levels all argue for powerful rallies that could catapult key indexes up to new all-time highs.
Metals are corroborating as Silver (along with Platinum & Palladium) fulfilling ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April… followed by powerful surges. Meanwhile, Gold just pulled back to support and is projecting a surge into the days surrounding April 19th (Date of Aggression) along with the XAU & HUI. Gold is expected to set a 2 – 3 month peak at that time.
What Does April 4th/7th Bottom Portend for Rest of 2025?
Why are Monthly Trend & Monthly 21 MACs Reinforcing Potential Lows?
Which Indexes are Most Likely to Rally Back to Highs?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.