Stocks Reinforce Peaks; DJIA Projects Initial Plunge to ~41,800; Dec 17 – 20th = Danger Period!
12/07/24 – “Stock indexes are showing some divergence after fulfilling a series of highs projected for Oct 17/18, Nov 11 – 13th and ultimately Nov 22/25th. The IDX, DJTA & RUT peaked precisely on Nov 25th – fulfilling the past two months’ outlook – and have since sold off. The NQ-100 and related tech stocks extended their advances to monthly resistance…
Stock Indices are showing initial divergence with the S+P Midcap 400, DJTA & Russell 2000 declining from their November 25th (cyclic) peaks while tech stocks and indexes extended rallies…
Small cap and mid-cap stock indexes, as described in early-October ’24, fulfilled expectations to mimic the action of June/July 2024 and lead an overall stock rally into late-November ’24.
All three surged right to multi-month range-trading targets – at 3400/IDX, 17,600/DJTA & 2460/QR (2440/cash) – and peaked precisely during the most synergistic convergence of daily, weekly & monthly cycles on Nov 22/25th… after rallying 11 – 14% in Oct/Nov ’24 (DJIA, SP & NQ rallied 7 – 8%) – much like June/July 2024.
The DJTA has plunged (even as airline stocks surged) and already closed below its 4th wave of lesser degree support (Nov 20 low) – a key level of downside wave determination – after turning its daily trend down (confirming a multi-week peak)…
Consistent with this type of divergence, the IDX & DJTA have already turned their intra-month trends down… [DJIA] has remained below its late-Nov ’24 high and only needs a daily close below 44,574/DJIA to turn its new intra-month trend down.
It peaked while fulfilling a ~4-week (25 – 28 day) low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and could see an initial drop into December 16 – 19th. A multi-week drop to 41,600 – 41,800/DJIA is becoming more likely.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes fulfilled the October/November outlook and rallied into November 25th when the S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 likely set decisive peaks as they attacked & held major upside range-trading targets near 3400/IDX, ~17,600 & 2460/QR. (S+P 500 & NQ-100 are distinct and have slightly higher targets.) That fulfilled all the upside potential for 4Q 2024 and ushered in a dangerous 3 – 4 week period. The DJIA peaked shortly after.
In early-October, the S+P Midcap 400 was projected to lead an overall surge into late-November ’24 – when a more significant peak was/is a much higher probability. The greatest synergy of those cycles – reiterated many times in our publications – was on November 22/25th and represented the ideal time for the small and midcap indexes to set pivotal peaks and usher in a sharp (initial) 3 – 4-week drop.
Stocks Positive into October 17th/18th, Then Late-November; S+P 400 to Lead Way Higher
The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities with the final weeks of 2024 representing a precarious time for stocks. Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying a pair of likely time frames when the sharpest sell-offs are more likely… and when future lows are expected. The first one arrives in December ‘24!
Why are S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 Likely to Plunge From Nov 25, ’24 Cycle Peak?
How is DJIA Projecting Multi-Week Plunge to ~41,800/DJIA?
Why are Major Range Targets in DJTA, IDX AND RUT Validating a Critiical Top?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.