Stocks Reinforce Upside Objectives

02/28/17 INSIIDE Track:

          02-28-17 – Stock Indices remain strong as they near the culmination – and transition – of a 17-Year Cycle, poised to peak in 1Q 2017.  If it is a precise 17-Year Cycle, that peak would take place in March 2017 – exactly 17 years from the March 2000 peaks in the S+P 500, Nasdaq 100 & most other Indices.

The 40-Year Cycle remains in a larger-degree transition phase whereas the Decennial Cycle is focused on the potential for a surprise sell-off at some point in 2017 (likely carrying over into 2018).  That 10-Year Cycle has timed repeated ’panics’ and/or sell-offs in the ’7’–’8’ years in each of the past 8 decades & 13 of the last 18 decades.

And, as described about a year ago, it also coincides with the anticipated ’Curse of the Republican President’ – that was expected to take hold a few months after the inauguration of a (potential) Republican Administration.  As repeatedly stressed, these cycles are like a wooden roller coaster with multiple cars slowly moving over a peak.  Until all the cars have passed that peak, a convincing & accelerated decline cannot take hold.

In the meantime, there are some critical upside objectives to monitor – based on wave relationships, yearly extremes & yearly projected resistance.  The wave objectives were confirmed when the Indices exceeded their 2015 highs and validated ‘5th’ wave advances (as culmination to the overall rally since 2009).  That synergy of price targets comes into play at 21,616–22,030/DJIA & 2465–2531/SPX, with a less-synergistic objective at 5414–5592/NQ.

In each case, they represent wave targets – where the ‘5’ wave advance (since early-2016) would relate to the ‘1’ & ‘3’ wave advances of March 2009–May 2011 & Oct. 2011–May 2015.  They also include the yearly LHRs (intra-year extreme upside targets) for 2016, which carry-over into the ensuing year, and the yearly Raw SPRs for 2017…

On an intermediate basis, several Indices are following a ~4-week low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression that portends a multi-week peak on March 1–3rd.  An over-arching ~8-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression is also projecting a multi-week peak for March 1–3rd.  Whether this can morph into something larger remains to be seen.  (If not, it would project a subsequent high in late-March – precisely 17 years from the late-March 2000 highs.)

3–5 year equity traders & investors should begin considering lightening up (20–25%) on longs if/when the DJIA closes* below [reserved for subscribers only]

This is the first time in many years that longer-term investors are in a position to see a partial liquidation signal generated – adding to the significance of this 1Q 2017 cycle peak (and the March/April 2017 Danger Period).”

Stock Indices on track for 2017 peak, incorporating 40-Year Cycle (negative in 3Q/4Q 2017), 17-Year Cycle (downturn in March 2017–Oct. 2019) & 10-Year Decennial Cycle (July–Nov. 2017 = likely sell-off, stretching into March 2018).  Upside price targets remain in focus and likely to be tested before final peak (21,616–22,030/DJIA & 2465–2531/SPX & 5414–5592/NQ).  See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional details.