Stocks Signaling Blow-off Top…
Stocks Signaling Blow-off Top…
Dollar Reaffirms 1 – 2 Year Decline;
XAU Signaling Final Spike High.
01/22/18 INSIIDE Track Intra-month Update:
“Stock Indices remain bullish as they near the culmination of 5-month AND 10-month low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progressions… From a price perspective, the NQ-100 has reached & exceeded a combination of multi-month targets at 6750 – 6850/NQH (as the Transports attacked a corresponding target at 11,200 – 11,400 [reserved for subscribers]…
In most of the Indexes, the ‘5th waves’ that began in 2016 (following the recurrence of 7-year & 14-year low-low-low Cycle Progressions) have now exceeded the magnitudes of their respective ‘3rd waves’ (the advances from 4Q 2011 into 1Q/2Q 2015; all part of an overall 5-wave structure that began from the 2009 bottom) – a rare event that usually only occurs during the parabolic phase of a blow-off advance.
[To put it in context, the 3rd waves had already significantly exceeded the magnitudes of the respective ‘1st wave’ advances from March 2009 into April/May 2011 – confirming those 3rd waves as the extended wave. In most cases, there is only one extended wave in an overall 5-wave advance and it is usually the ‘3rd wave’.
The remaining two advances are usually smaller than the 3rd wave, but similar to each other in magnitude. In this case, however, the 5th wave is now extending beyond the magnitude of the already-extended 3rd waves – during the phase of the 10-month Cycle Progression when an accelerated advance also became a higher probability. That is rarely seen, except at the crescendo of multiple 5th wave culminations.]
Bottom line: Equities have been in a steadily-accelerating advance – beginning to exhibit signs of [reserved for subscribers]…
Bonds & Notes are reinforcing a developing bear market that is projected to last into/through late-2019 – when a ~3-year/34 – 35 month high (Mar. ‘08) – low (Feb. ‘11) – low (Jan. ‘14) – low (Dec. ‘16) – low (4Q 2019) Cycle Progressioncomes back into play. They have closely adhered to a succession of geometric, intermediate cycles that have timed recurring turning points on a quarterly & semi-annual basis (90, 180 & 360 degrees or days apart).
They were expected to set an intra-year peak in Sept. 2017 – the latest phase of a ~15-month low (Sept. ‘12)–low (Dec. ‘13)–high (Mar. ‘15)–high (Jun. ‘16)–high (Sept. ‘17) Cycle Progression. They fulfilled that & were forecast to create a lower high in early-Dec. – the latest phase of a related & geometric 90-degree/3-month low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
That too was fulfilled & projects another intermediate high for early-March, before a likely decline into June 2018.
As conveyed in INSIIDE Track, that is the most likely time for an intra-year low – the next phase of an ~18-month low (June ‘09) – high (Nov. ‘10) – high (Jun ‘12) – low (Dec. ‘13) – low (Jun. ‘15) – low (Dec. ‘16) – low (June 2018) Cycle Sequence. That is part of an overlapping 3-year high (June ‘03) – low (Jun. ‘06) – low (Jun. ‘09) – high (Jun. ‘12) – low (Jun. ‘15) – low (June 2018) Cycle Sequence…
The Dollar Index remains bearish and on track for an overall decline into May 2018. It began 2018 with renewed selling, ultimately resulting in a weekly close below the Sept. low – what had been the lowest low of the Dollar’s decline. That confirms what is now a 12+-month downtrend & increases the potential for additional downside…
Gold & Silver have surged since bottoming in the first half of Dec. with Gold turning its weekly trend up. In contrast, Silver has so far failed to do the same & still needs a weekly close above 17.325/SIH to turn its weekly trend up…
The XAU.surged to test monthly & weekly resistance (90.44 – 91.17 & 90.82 – 91.38, respectively) during mid-month & mid-week, producing the potential for an initial (3 – 5 day, possibly 1 – 2 week) peak.
However, it needs a daily close below 87.41 to reverse its daily trend to down and confirm that a 1 – 3 week top is in place. Otherwise, it would likely head back to its recent high and see at least one more spike high before a multi-week peak is in place.”
Stock Indices are exhibiting multiple signs of a blow-off peak with key indexes reaching extreme upside price targets as multi-month cycles project a reversal lower in February. Bonds & the Dollar have dropped to new multi-year lows, increasing downside pressure on equities.
Gold, Silver & Gold stocks (XAU) have surged from early-Dec. lows and could see one more spike high before a multi-week peak is in place. All of this is intensifying Currency Wars as Bitcoin’s recent bounce could not neutralize its daily downtrend – leaving it negative and in a 1 – 2 month downtrend, trading a little above its primary 2 – 4 week downside target.
Now that mid-Jan. has passed, that low identifies the breakdown/confirmation point for the next wave down. If/when Bitcoin drops below 9,400, it would escalate its overall decline & validate the broader outlook for an ultimate decline to ~5,500. The Dollar is poised for a late-Jan./early-Feb. bounce that could add downside pressure to ‘anti-Dollar’ instruments.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.