Stocks & Silver on Track for Late-July ’25 (Multi-Week) High & Quick Pullbacks.
07-21-25 – “Stock indices sold off and then consolidated after fulfilling projections for a rally into July 3rd. That was expected to spur a quick multi-day sell-off into mid-month followed by a rally to higher highs – in at least some of the indexes – leading into late-July ’25 – when multi-month cycles peak.
So far, equities have done exactly that – creating (likely) penultimate highs on July 3rd – the highs before the ultimate highs in the stronger indexes – and then rallying to new highs (S+P 500 & NQ-100) leading into late-July ’25 – when a more significant top is expected.
In the ideal scenario, they would stretch this rally into July 28 – August 1, ’25 – the next phase of a consistent ~35-week high (late-July ‘23) high (late-Mar ’24) – high (late-Nov ’24) – (high; July 24 – 31) Cycle Progression. However, they have already entered the broader time period when a topping process is most likely.
That ~35-week cycle is the recurring ~8-month cycle that helped pinpoint April 3rd – 7th as the most likely time for a multi-month bottom… 8 months from the early-August ’24 low. (There was also a multi-month peak set in Nov ’22 – 34 weeks before that Cycle Progression – reinforcing the consistency of the ~8-month cycle.)
That cycle also pinpointed the late-Nov ’24 peak in leading indexes, fulfilling an ~8-month high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-Mar ’24) – (high; late-Nov ’24) Cycle Progression. Viewing it from the ~8-month perspective, stocks have entered a pivotal time when that ~8-month high (July 21 – 31, ‘23) high (March 21 – 31, ’24) – high (Nov 21 – 31, ’24) – (high; July 21 – 31, ‘25) Cycle Progression recurs.
It is not just that cycle, however…
An overall rally into late-July ‘25 fulfills wave symmetry with the culminating rallies in the latest two advances – in Aug – Nov ’24 & April – late-July ’25 – each lasting 16 weeks in duration. The S+P Midcap 400 – the index that led this year’s ’17-Year Cycle’ sell-off when it peaked in late-Nov ’24 – has experienced intermediate advances of 16 – 18 weeks on 3 previous occasions since its Oct ’22 low.
This would be the 4th time and complete 4 of 5 similar rallies lasting the same duration… since Oct ’22. If an intermediate peak is set in late-July, it would likely spur a sharp 2 – 3 week decline into late-August ’25 and fulfill an overlapping ~19-week high-low-(low; Aug 20 – 27, ’25) Cycle Progression – linked to the Nov ’24 – April ’25 declines in a majority of the major indexes…
From a broader perspective, these continued advances are fulfilling the overall outlook (since April) for many stock indexes to rally from their April 7th lows to new all-time highs (as a result of multiple monthly indicators discussed in April ’25). One of the most important indicators in that analysis is the monthly trend indicator…
In most stock indexes, the monthly uptrend turned neutral twice as equities plunged into early-April ’25. They could not reverse those monthly trends down, projecting a subsequent rally to new all-time highs… which has been fulfilled in the ESU & NQU. That, too, shows this latest ~3.5-month rally is living on borrowed time and is now due for a larger retracement…
Gold & Silver initially fulfilled ongoing analysis for a surge to (at least) 39.50 – 40.10/SIU in Silver – with a multi-week peak projected for July ‘25.
Silver completed back-to-back advances of 14 weeks each (wave symmetry) while surging to 39.50/SIU and initially fulfilling a myriad of multi-month upside targets.
That had Silver reaching the minimum upside objective for the projected ‘wave 5’ of this overall advance while attacking 4 of the latest 5 monthly LHRs – a powerful convergence of extreme upside monthly targets.
Silver also had a pair of range-trading targets at 39.50 – 40.00/SI that reinforce this upside target (~28.50 low – 34.10 high – ~39.70/SIU & ~28.50 low – ~32.25 low – ~36.00 high – ~39.75/SIU high).
Silver attacked and held its weekly LHR on July 11th, increasing the potential for a peak at this time. It has also just set its highest daily close – initially fulfilling its ~5-week low-low-low-low-(high; July 21 – 25, ’25) Cycle Progression.
At the same time, Gold has repeatedly found support at its rising weekly 21 High MAC but would need to now rally sharply to show that is still holding… The next 2 – 3 days could tell the tale for the next several weeks.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have mostly fulfilled projections for surges to new all-time highs after confirming multi-month bottoms in early-April ’25 – when they fulfilled major 1 – 2-year downside price targets and related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025 (projected 20 – 30+% plunges) and set what should be 6 – 12 month lows in sync with many monthly indicators. This upside fulfillment could trigger a quick round of selling before a new advance (into late-2025/early-2026??) takes hold.
Late-July ’25 could produce a multi-week high with subsequent cycle lows aligning in the second half of August ’25. (A new 16 – 18-week rally could begin in late-August and mature in late-2025.) Monthly & weekly trend indicators are positive and are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes. With this occurring near/after mid-year, it provides another bullish factor into late-2025.
Silver, Platinum & Palladium fulfilled ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April, triggering convincing buy signals that were followed by powerful surges. Silver is fulfilling its 2 – 3 month upside objective (a rally above 39.50/SI) while Platinum is nearing ~1500/PL, a similar upside target. Platinum & Palladium have fulfilled projections for 3+-month surges into late-July ’25 and should set intermediate highs at any time.
Why Do New All-Time Highs Portend a Brief Sell-off in Stocks?
How Would Late-July ’25 Highs Reinforce Late-2025 Cycle Highs?
How High Can Stocks Surge After Fulfilling 17-Year Cycle Plunge?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.