Stocks, Silver & Projected Rallies into Late-July ’25.
07-02-25 – “Platinum & Palladium continue to surge with Palladium accelerating higher immediately after triggering multiple buy signals on June 17th, 20th & 25th – the latter of which was highlighted in the June 25th Alert (see page 2). They remain positive until daily closes below 1330/PLV & 1090/PAU.
All this action is powerfully confirming the outlook for 2025/2026 and the paradigm shift that has been forecast to unfold in April ’25 – April ’26 – with Platinum projected to surge from its ~880/ PL low to ~1,500/PL and fulfill the minimum ‘rally = rally’ (‘C’ = ‘A’??) wave objective. Much higher levels are possible/likely.
As described during June ’25, Palladium was triggering multiple 21 MAC signals (daily & weekly) – all of which were bullish and warning of an imminent accelerated surge. That occurred as Platinum resumed its rally and headed higher into daily & weekly cycles converging in late-June/early-July ’25.
These past ~3 months are likely just the first phase of a much broader and larger advance in white metals… which have been forecast to surge from early-April ‘25 into April/May 2026.
If a high stretches into 2026, Platinum would complete a 50% rebound in time (12 years down/6 years up) and fulfill the latest phase of a ~5-year high (2011) – high (2016) – high (2021) – (high; 2026) Cycle Progression that parallels the Silver outlook.
On a related basis, Palladium could stretch its overall advance into 3Q 2026 – when the next multi-year peak appears most likely. A peak in 3Q ‘26 would fulfill a ~5.25-year low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression as well as a .618 rebound in time (39-month decline followed by 24-month rally).
In the meantime, a lot of other action in a lot of other markets is unfolding…
Stock Indices, based on their weekly trend & intermediate cycles, remain in the week with a higher likelihood of setting a multi-week top.
On June 27th, the DJIA, Russell 2000 and S+P Midcap 400 finally turned their weekly trends up and joined the S+P 500 & NQ-100 in that structure. (The DJTA needs a weekly close above 15,540 to accomplish the same thing.)
That weekly trend signal is a lagging/confirming one that often coincides with an initial multi-week top. (In the ideal scenario, that multi-week top would be followed by a reactive 1 – 3 week sell-off and then a subsequent rally to new highs). There are other factors corroborating this potential…
All three of those indexes dropped for 19 weeks leading into their early-April ’25 cycle lows. A 12-week rebound would represent a .618 rally in time – portending an intermediate peak on July 1st – 3rd.
A peak on July 1st or 2nd would also complete two magnitudes of symmetrically-timed rallies (successive 39-day rallies and 18-19-day rallies) within the post-April 7th advance.
Just as important, these continued advances are fulfilling the overall outlook (since April) for many stock indexes to rally from their April 7th lows to new all-time highs (as a result of multiple monthly indicators discussed in April ’25). That is another example where price action, price indicators, and price projections supersede cycles.
The S+P 500 & NQ-100 accomplished that last week with the DJIA still capable of doing the same.
If that does not occur at this time, the DJIA (and others) could stretch their overall advances into late-July ’25, the next phase of a consistent ~35-week** high (late-July ‘23) high (late-Mar ’24) – high (late-Nov ’24) – (high; July 27 – 31, ’25) Cycle Progression.
(The Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap are not as certain to reach new all-time highs, so July price action needs to clarify.)
An overall rally into late-July ‘25 would represent some wave symmetry with the culminating rallies – in Aug – Nov ’24 & April – late-July ’25 – each lasting 16 weeks in duration.
**That ~35-week cycle is the nearly-ubiquitous ~8-month cycle that has been a recurring feature in stocks – for decades – and which helped pinpoint April 3rd – 7th as the most likely time for a multi-month bottom… 8 months from the early-August ’24 low.
It also helped pinpoint the late-Nov ’24 peak in multiple indexes, ~8 months from their preceding late-March ’24 highs which were ~8 months from their preceding late-July ’23 highs… which were ~8 months from their preceding late-Nov ’22 highs.
For now, stock indexes remain positive until daily closes below 43,500/DJIA, 6180/ESU & 22,380/NQU…
Gold & Silver remain mixed with Gold rebounding after fulfilling the near-term outlook for a drop to 3244 – 3267/GCQ. It has twice neutralized its daily downtrend and needs a daily close above 3371/GCQ to turn that trend up and signal a multi-week low. Until that occurs, the intermediate trend is down.
Conversely, Silver is positive until a daily close below 35.53/SIU. It remains capable of tracing out a wave ‘5’ rally that could see a test of 39.50 – 40.10/ SIU (or higher) in the coming weeks.
The XAU & HUI remain near their highs after pulling back into late-June and nearing or testing weekly HLS levels – signaling an imminent low.
Those lows could have fulfilled ‘a-b-c’ corrections with the XAU bottoming right at the level of its mid-April ’25 peak (199.41) – a pivotal level of resistance turned into support and range-trading support.
Ultimately, the XAU remains targeted for a retest of its late-2010 peak near 233.00/XAU and that pivot point – near 199.00/XAU – reinforces that scenario.
In mid-April ‘25, the XAU was projected to peak near 199.00/XAU – a decisive level of range-trading resistance that linked previous range parameters (since 2023) at ~103 – ~135 – ~167 – ~199/XAU.
As explained at the time, the next target – following a daily & weekly close above 199.00/XAU – would be 231/XAU. In many cases, a market will break above range resistance and then pull back to test the breakout point (199.00/XAU) before resuming its rally and proceeding to the next range target.
The XAU just did that, reinforcing these range parameters and increasing the likelihood for a surge above 230.00/XAU in the foreseeable future (July ’25??). Reinforcing that, the monthly LHR for June ‘25 (extreme upside target that applies for 2 months) was at 235.74/XAU and the monthly HHR for July ‘25 is at 232.18/XAU.
On a near-term basis, the new intra-month trend would need to turn up (which might coincide with the daily trend turning back up) in order to show new strength and prevent any additional selling.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are convincingly fulfilling projections for surges to new all-time highs after confirming multi-month bottoms in early-April ’25 – when they fulfilled major 1 – 2-year downside price targets and related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025 (projected 20 – 30+% plunges). A myriad of monthly indicators projected subsequent rallies to new all-time highs – with multi-month cycle highs focused on late-July ‘25.
Silver, Platinum & Palladium fulfilled ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April, triggering convincing buy signals that were followed by powerful surges. Silver is targeting a rally above 39.50/SI while Platinum is projected to reach ~1500/PL, at a minimum. The XAU & HUI fulfilled projections for rallies into mid-June and are prepping for rallies into August ’25 and above 230.0/XAU.
Why Did Key Indexes Project New All-Time Highs?
How Significant are Late-July ’25 Cycle Highs in Stocks & Silver?
What Does Projected Silver/White Metals’/XAU Surge Portend?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.