Stocks & Bitcoin Project October Surges & November ’24 Peaks; S+P Midcap 400 Focused on Late-November ’24
10/16/24 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Crypto Correlation: Coincidence or Causality? – “The October 3, 2024 issue of The Bridge focused on Currency War cycles and the potential for Bitcoin to see an October surge into a November ’24 high…
At the same time, stock indexes were projecting a similar October surge with small and mid-cap indexes expected to lead the way. The action of Bitcoin is often correlated to the action of the Russell 2000 and this was/is another instance where their respective outlooks and resulting action have moved in close lockstep with one another.
Whether that is coincidence or causality – or a little of both – matters little.
It is always important to analyze each market on its own merits and technicals and to avoid the temptation to trade one market off the outlook for another. With that said, it is a good time to delve back into all the related analysis…
Stock Indices remain positive with the DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 validating analysis for them to lead the latest advance, initially projecting a new surge from October 7/8th into (ideally) October 17/18th (with a subsequent high forecast for late-October).
The DJTA traced out a textbook ‘a-b-c’ decline without turning its daily trend down, signaling it was poised to embark on a new rally into late-October – when its ~1.5-month cycle recurs – or early-Nov. Today’s action powerfully validated that.
This leads into the time when the primary (geometric) cycle in the DJIA comes back into play – on October 17/18th. A ~3-month cycle dates back to its mid-October ’22 bottom and subsequent peaks in January, April & July 2023.
That was followed by a ~3-month decline into the middle half of October ’23 – when another 6 – 12 month bottom was set. From there, the DJIA traced out a ~3-month/~13-week low – low (Jan 17) – low (Apr 17) – high (July 17/18, ’24) Cycle Progression – projecting a future peak for the middle of October… ideally October 17/18, 2024.
The successive, mid-October (’22 & ’23) lows also project a rally into mid-October ’24 (that could stretch into next week). A corroborating ~10-week low-low-(high) and ~5-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression also projected rallies into October 16 – 18, ’24.
At the same time, the S+P Midcap 400 broke out higher in fulfillment of ongoing analysis. It remains on track for a future peak… it has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.
Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is unfolding. Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.
If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:
- ~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~8-month/34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-March ’24) – (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~4-month/~17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~2-month/~8 – 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression… *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 – 18th.
- Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 – Jan ’20, Mar ’20 – Apr ’21, June ’22 – July ’23, Oct ’23 – November 2024).
So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.
Meanwhile, the NQ-100 maintains wave targets near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ. New monthly resistance concurs and is reinforced by the recent lows creating an Intermediate LLH in the vicinity. A rally to that level is likely…
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing intermediate bottoming signals with Bitcoin turning its intra-month trend up. That increases the likelihood for rallies into November 2024 – the next phase of the ~8-month (& midpoint of the ~16-month) Cycle Progressions that timed the March ’24 top.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes remain strong and are rallying into October 17/18th cycles. Early-October buy signals remain in force and should spur surges (initially) into ~October 18th. The NQ-100 is projecting the next significant peak to occur near 21,200/NQZ.
The S+P Midcap 400 and related indexes are showing that small and mid-cap stocks are likely to lead a surge into late-November ’24. The 17-Year Cycle remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities but price action needs to hone when and where that is most likely.
In the near-term, a multi-week high is likely on October 17/18th after additional upside. The ~5-week/~37-day cycle portends a subsequent peak on/around November 22/25th – when a myriad of cycles peak in the S+P Midcap 400. Late-October action should corroborate.
Interestingly, Bitcoin recently corroborated this outlook – generating additional buy signals and projecting a surge into November 2024. See October 3, 2024 issue of The Bridge for details.
Why is S+P Midcap 400 Poised to Lead Surge into Late-November?
What Does the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Portend?
Will This Coincide with Election Cycles and the Outlook for US Dollar?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.