Stocks, S+P Midcap 400, Russell 2000 & November Peaks; Watch November 25th
11/20/24 – Russell 2K & Range Repetition; A Review & Refresher – “In November 2021, Weekly Re-Lay publications updated the ongoing range-trading phenomenon in the Russell 2000 and explained how the attainment of major price and timing upside objectives were expected to usher in a 1 – 2 year peak and a 6 – 12 month decline as part of that process.
Included with that analysis was the chart reprinted above, illustrating why ~2460/QR was a decisive level of resistance that was projected to usher in that peak after fulfilling a myriad of upside price targets, wave objectives and range-trading targets.
The November 3, 2021 Weekly Re-Lay Alert described the outlook for a major peak in the Russell 2000 in this manner:
11-03-21 – “A peak on Nov. 4 or 5th would also perpetuate a ~60-day/~2-month low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in which peaks (preceded by a low in March ’21) were seen on the 4th – 7th trading day of every other month (May, July, Sept. and Nov?)…
The Russell 2K has finally surged to new highs, fulfilling its weekly trend pattern and ushering in the potential for a 2 – 4 week peak in the coming days. That could lead to a reactive sell-off into late-Nov – in sync with a 12-week high-high-high-high-(??), a 14-week low-low-low-low-(??), and an 18-week high-high-low-(low?) Cycle Progression…”
– 11-03-21 WR Alert
The Russell 2000 peaked in perfect lockstep with that convergence of targets and cycle highs and began a ~2-year decline that did not set its lowest weekly close until late-October 2023.
That 2023 low ushered in a ~year-long advance – a 50% rebound in time – that brought the Russell right back to the same major upside target at ~2460/QR… three years from its previous peak.
Reinforcing the significance of that range diagram, the Russell 2K spent over a year – from May ’22 into October ’23 – testing and retesting the previous highs from late-2018 & early-2020… multi-year levels of ‘resistance turned into support’.
The highest monthly close of 2019/2020 was exactly where the lowest monthly close of 2022 took place… AND where the lowest monthly close of October 2023 also took hold.
The rally into November 2024 perpetuated this range-trading sequence and finally had the Russell 2000 attacking that objective at the same time a myriad of daily, weekly & monthly cycles converged. The November 13, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert stated:
11-13-24 – “This connection/correlation has been powerfully validated and is creating a situation that feels like déjà vu… from November 2021.
Not surprisingly, the Russell 2000 is exactly where it was – and where it peaked – in Nov 2021… at ~2460/QR. So, too, is the related ETF – IWM – briefly spiking above 240/ IWM as it did in November ’21.
It just fulfilled converging ~4-week high-high-high-(high; November 11/12th) & ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high; November 11 – 13th) Cycle Progressions.”
– 11-13-24 WR Alert
The Russell 2000 peaked there and quickly plunged 7+% in a little over a week. That is where it currently stands. Some context is necessary first…
Stock Indices, on a 6 – 12-month and 1 – 2 year basis, have fulfilled analysis for an overall advance into 4Q 2024. The NQ-100, Russell 2000 & DJTA fulfilled upside price targets and peaked in line with daily cycle highs on Nov 11 – 13th.
The recent peak fulfilled ~8-month high-high-high-(high) & ~12.5-month low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progressions in diverse indices. It also fulfilled a 17 – 18-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
The NQ-100 retested its July peak while fulfilling the 1 – 2 month outlook for a rally back to ~21,200/NQZ – the scenario that had been forecast for that index the preceding two months. It was/is expected to peak in the middle half of November and fulfill an 18 – 19-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that last timed the mid-July ’24 high.
It has initially fulfilled that (with a peak on November 11th – exactly 4 months from it July 11th high) – and experienced a quick, sharp drop. However, it would not turn its daily trend down until a daily close below 20,405/NQZ..
The DJTA peaked while fulfilling its upside range target near 17,600 – doubling the previous rally from ~15,600 – ~16,600 (part of its overall ~5-month advance from ~14,600). That low followed the October ’23 low near 13,600, where the Transports repeatedly found support, helping to form this overall range-trading sequence.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes surged into Nov 11/12th and set initial highs. A set of subsequent (divergent?) highs are expected during the greatest synergy of diverse cycles on ~November 25th. The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities.
The S+P Midcap 400 remains the leader in this move and was projected – in early-October – to lead an overall surge into late-November ’24 – when a more significant peak is a higher probability (though price action would need to validate).
Stocks Positive into October 17/18th, Then Late-November; S+P 400 to Lead Way Higher
November 22/25th is the greatest synergy of cycles but key indicators will need to clarify if/when a late-November top is forming.
Why is S+P Midcap 400 Leading Projected Surge into Late-November?
Is Russell 2000 Range Target Déjà vu Revealing Additional Clues?
Is DJTA Signaling a Top?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.