Stocks Trigger Synergistic Sell Signals; Enter Danger Zone & Project Late-Feb/early-March Plunges!
02/21/25 – “Stock Indices remain in the midst of multi-month trading ranges while showing progressive signs of topping (in leading/weaker indexes) and rolling over to the downside. On balance, the ensuing declines could last into late-March/early-April ’25.
An intervening decline could produce an initial multi-week low on [reserved for subscribers]...
The S+P Midcap – which has been leading most reversals since early-October – peaked in perfect lockstep with cycles topping on January 22/23rd as it fulfilled a 58 – 59 day high-high-high-(high; Jan 22/23) Cycle Progression. Since then, it has been on track for a decline into (at least) March [reserved for subscribers]…
The S+P 500 powerfully validated expectations for a reversal lower this past week. It had twice neutralized its weekly downtrend as of Feb 14th – pinpointing Feb 18 – 21st as the ideal (textbook) time for a spike high and reversal lower.
That is exactly what took place with the S+P 500 (and other indexes) triggering a weekly 2 Close Reversal lower in the process.
At the same time, the NQ-100 cash index finally spiked to new highs – fulfilling its weekly trend indicator (the only one that had stayed positive) and pinpointing the time for a new multi-week top.
Meanwhile, the DJTA triggered an outside-week/ 2 Close Reversal lower and the next phase of a textbook weekly 21 MAC Reversal sequence.
In addition, the DJTA continues to trace out a textbook weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence as it steadily (also) traces out a multi-month top. It again rebounded after its latest test of intermediate support (and now its trend breakdown levels) at 15,670 – 15,770/DJTA… bouncing right to weekly resistance levels and the weekly 21 High MAC – all surrounding 16,800/DJTA.
That re-focuses attention on 15,670 – 15,770/DJTA – where the DJTA initially bottomed in Dec & January and retested on February 3rd. It is where the weekly 40 Low MAC and current week’s 21 Low MARC converge. (The weekly 21 Low MARC will remain in that range for 2 more weeks, increasing its significance throughout this period.)
It is also where monthly support & the monthly trend indicator align. A weekly close below 16,140/DJTA is needed to confirm the onset of a new wave down. Until that occurs, congestion is in force.
On an intermediate basis, stock indexes need to give weekly closes below their mid-January lows to exit the intervening trading range and elevate their sell-offs to a higher magnitude.
To reiterate, the DJTA, IDX & RUT/QRH could be casting shadows ahead. If the DJTA closes below that multi-month support, it would reinforce future cycles at the very end of March/beginning of April 2025.
This overall correction is still capable of stretching into March/April ‘25 – the convergence of multiple cycles & Cycle Progressions including an 18/19-month low-low-(low??) Cycle Progression, a 2-Year Cycle (DJIA peaked in late-Nov ’22 and sold off into March ’23) and an annual cycle that timed intra-year lows in 2020, 2023 & 2024.
From a much broader perspective, there are some unusual (though limited) parallels between the current markets and a key aspect of the 1920’s and a different (key) aspect of the 1990’s. This was discussed in the Feb 19, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alert and will be addressed in the March ’25 INSIIDE Track.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are entering a time of cohesive bearishness where all the indexes are signaling 2 – 4 week drops with acceleration lower still forecast for March ’25. They are confirming major peaks projected for Nov 22/25, 2024 (in S+P Midcap 400 & related indexes) and subsequent/secondary highs projected for ~January 22nd.
That was/is expected to prepare the way for sharper declines into March ’25, including a likely March Meltdown and confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift. That would validate weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered on January 10/13th. Coinciding with that, Bitcoin projected a major peak for January 2025 and is signaling a sharp drop into late-Feb/early-March ’25.
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major (multi-month and multi-quarter) peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline. It also continues to project a recession AND stagflation in 2025/2026. Corroborating that, the DJIA is revealing eerie parallels to late-2007/early-2008 and providing a roadmap for future expectations.
What are Parallels – AND Contrasts – Between 1920’s, 1990’s & 2020’s?
How Would Late-Feb/Early-March Plunges in Equities & Cryptos Reinforce Connections?
Why Do Weekly Trend & 4-Shadow Signals Cast Shadows Ahead for Stocks in 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.