Stocks Validating Early-April (Multi-Month) Cycle Low; Fulfill Projected 17-Year Cycle Plunge!
04/12/25 – “Stock indexes have fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for 20 – 25% (or larger) declines into early-April while tracing out a textbook monthly chart scenario for 1 – 2 month lows (test HLS, then LLS). All of that reinforced the pivotal nature of cycle lows on April 3 – 7th, when most stocks bottomed…
Stock Indices culminated their latest decline in dramatic fashion, reinforcing the impact of the 90/10 Rule of Cycles (in which a majority of a price move occurs at the end of a cycle).
Since the start of 2025, the focus has been on March/ April – more specifically on late-March/early-April ’25 – as the most likely time for the culmination of multi-month stock plunges.
As described in February & March, stocks had a high potential to fulfill (minimum) 17-Year Cycle projections – for 20 – 25% declines – by/in April ’25 when an initial bottom was/is most likely. On a monthly chart basis, they have also traced out the ideal sequence for a multi-month low.
That was corroborated by a myriad of timing indicators focused on April 3 – 7, including a ~9-week/~2-month high-high-high-high-(low; April 1 – 7) Cycle Progression – in the DJIA, DJTA & other indexes – and the ubiquitous ~8-month cycle from the August 5, ’24 low.
In the S+P 500, that ~8-month cycle (same cycle that projected the IDX Nov 22/25, ’24 peak) split into a symmetrical ~4-month/123-day low (Aug 5) – high (Dec 6) – (low; April 4/7th) cycle. The DJTA also completed a 2DGR retracement on April 3/4th while fulfilling the potential for the longest decline since 2022 (4-Shadow signal).
In setting recent lows, the S&P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 plunged to decisive range-trading targets while the DJTA, described as being in a more bearish setup, was projected to see a larger decline and reached the 30% decline threshold in sync with those early-April cycle lows…
Stock indices plunged into daily, weekly & inter-month cycles identifying April 3rd/4th/7th as the 3-day period with the greatest synergy of cycles for a multi-week bottom… the ideal scenario is still that April 4/7th timed a multi-week bottom.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes plunged into decisive cycle lows in early-April ’25 (April 3, 4 & 7th possessed greatest synergy of cycles for completing 20 – 30% projected plunges) while fulfilling major downside price targets. This is confirmation of weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January and corresponding sell signals triggered on/after January 22/23rd and should usher in a multi-month bottom.
This drop into early-April completes the initial 17-Year Cycle decline projected for 2025 and ushers in the potential for a rally back to all-time highs in key stock indexes.
Metals are corroborating as Silver (along with Platinum & Palladium) fulfilling ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April… followed by powerful surges. Meanwhile, Gold just pulled back to support and is projecting a surge into the days surrounding April 19th (Date of Aggression) along with the XAU & HUI. Gold is expected to set a 2 – 3 month peak at that time.
What Does April 4th/7th Bottom Portend for Rest of 2025?
Why are Monthly Trend & Monthly 21 MACs Reinforcing Potential Lows?
Which Indexes are Most Likely to Rally Back to Highs?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.