Stocks Vulnerable into Nov. ‘16
09/29/16 INSIIDE Track:
“Equity markets – in 2015/2016 – continue to validate expectations for a repeat of (resembling) 2000/2001 & a 15–18 month topping process. Late-June cycle lows project a subsequent low in Nov. 2016…
Stock Indices have congested since fulfilling the upside targets triggered by the late-June low – the latest phase of ~5-month & ~10-month low-low cycles. That low created a sequence of multi-month lows in late-Aug. ’15, late-Jan. ’16 & late-June ’16… that project an ensuing low in late-Nov. 2016.
On a price basis, that late-June low was projected to spur a sharp DJIA rally, from key support (~17,100) to 1–3 month & 3–6 month objectives at 18,600–18,700. Since then, an intermediate topping process has been unfolding.
32–33 Week Cycle
The 32–33 Week Cycle has been a repeated topic of discussion since 2013, when it was projecting a final, accelerated advance into late-2014. Since then, it has identified a series of Danger Periods – a key part of the 15–18 month topping process forecast for 2015–2016 – when sharp setbacks were anticipated… and quickly materialized.
Those Danger Periods have escalated in intensity, first timing a quick, sharp correction from early-Sept. into mid-Oct. 2014, then (along with the corresponding 66-Week Cycle) pinpointing the late-April-through-late-August 2015 decline and finally timing the mid-Dec. ‘15–late-Jan. ‘16 drop that took most Indices down to their 2016 projected lows.
The latest phase of the 32–33 Week Cycle – as well as another phase of the corresponding 66-Week Cycle – recurred in the first half of August 2016. Similar to the May–Aug. ‘15 decline (the last time the 66-Week Cycle joined in), that was/is likely to create two-part decline – including an initial 1–2 month drop (into late-Sept.) and an overall, 2–4 month sell-off (resuming in early-Oct.).
If so, that would reinforce the parallels to 2000–2002, at which time it took a 15–18 month topping process – in the DJIA – before it entered a more sustained decline. Related cycles in the DJIA & DJTA have been pinpointing 4Q 2016 for a similar shift.
Daily & weekly cycles converge on Sept. 30—Oct. 7th & could time a retest of the mid-Aug. highs. Several weekly trend patterns are corroborating. After that, cycles turn more negative…
Another intriguing aspect of this period – from Sept.–Nov. 2016 – incorporates the 8-Year Cycle. It was Sept–Nov. ‘08 (most intense in Oct. ’08) when the DJIA suffered its sharpest declines, largest volatility & biggest single-week drop in 70+ years.
It was Sept.–Nov. ’00 when the Tech Bubble entered its second phase of bursting, breaking below initial lows and confirming a bear market. That is also when the S+P turned its monthly trend down & confirmed a multi-year peak.
And, it was Sept.–Oct. ’92 when stocks suffered their last pullback before the massive ’90’s bull market kicked in. The 8-Year Cycle has very precisely timed watershed sell-offs… and Sept.–Nov. 2016 is poised to mirror that pattern…
Global Indices
China’s Shanghai & Shenzhen Composites turned back down in Sept., reinforcing the 6–12 month & 1–2 year outlooks for another sizeable decline…
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index turned its weekly trend up – further validating the double bottom set in Feb. & June ‘16. Those lows took hold as the Nikkei was twice attacking its 2016 HLS (15,334; extreme intra-year downside target).
The June 2016 low also perpetuated a 2-year high (2Q ‘08)–high (2Q ‘10)–low (2Q ‘12)–low (2Q ‘14)–low (2Q 2016) Cycle Progression AND a 19-week low-low-low Progression… with its next phase on Oct. 31–Nov. 4, ’16. Another low is expected at that time and could culminate a sharp sell-off in October…
The German DAX Index has slowly rolled over to the downside, since fulfilling analysis for a rebound into late-July/early-Aug. – perpetuating an ~8-month high-high-high Cycle Progression & a Golden Ratio, 10 month decline/6 month rebound (.618). That created successive, 6-month advances and had the DAX test & hold critical 3–6 month & intra-year resistance at 10,485–10,743/DAX.
The next phase of a 19–20 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression comes into play on Nov. 7–18, 2016 and is the ideal time for the next intermediate bottom.” …[See complete Oct. 2016 INSIIDE Track for expanded analysis]”
US Stock Indices project new sell-off into Nov. 2016 cycle low – linked to multiple weekly, monthly & yearly cycles. 8-Year Cycle projects drop into Oct./Nov. 2016 before next multi-month low. Nikkei (Japan) signaling drop into Oct. 31–Nov. 4thwhile DAX (Germany) portends next multi-month low on Nov. 7–18th. Nov./Dec. 2016 poised to be volatile period as cycles prepare to transition into early-2017. Focus remains on late-2016 when 15–18 month topping process (from May/June 2015) should begin to shift into larger-degree downtrend in 2017.
That is reinforced by monthly 21 MARCs (see Tech Tip Reference Library for indicator description) – that pinpoint Dec. 2016–March 2017 as precarious period, when the corresponding 21 MAC has a better chance to flatten and eventually turn down. Not surprisingly, Jan.–Mar. 2017 is a precise 17-Year Cycle from the Jan.–Mar. 2000 peak. 2017 shaping up to be very interesting period!