This Week in Money: Flood Cycles in 2023.
March 16, 2023
This Week in Money Interview
Jim Goddard (host of This Week in Money): It’s always intriguing to see how these cycles influence natural events, last year you kept saying California and the West Coast would see a substantial amount of rain this winter, even though most forecasters were saying we’d see more drought. Can you give us a little more information about how you came to this conclusion and what it means for the markets?
Eric: Let me answer that in reverse. As far as the markets, it definitely has an impact on certain markets and one of the ones I have been watching has been grain markets. They finished some pretty serious rallies into the middle to later part of last year and part of that was on drought. Part of it was on increased demand, even going back to 2020 and 2021 with the China purchases of soybeans. So there was a combination of demand, supply shortages, labor shortages – everything working in favor of a bull market in grains.
And, then over the last couple months, both corn and soybeans have given some pretty convincing sell signals and I think that part of that is also linked to the increased precipitation that we’re getting.
When you look at what was really driving that analysis, some of that has been years in the making and years in the discussion – going back to 2015 / 2016 in the INSIIDE Track newsletter, where I was explaining how you’ve had this very consistent 40 year cycle of drought. And it doesn’t mean that there’s drought through the whole 40 years, but it means that the ebb and flow of the drought years, the wet years…they follow a similar pattern on a 40 year cycle basis.
You can go back to the 1820s, then the 1860s and in fact you had the Civil War Drought, from 1856 into the early 1860s. Then you had a combination of droughts from 1895/96 into 1901/1902 – including the biggest one worldwide called the Federation Drought and that really hit Australia. But then in 1930s, from 1934 through 1941, you had the Dust Bowl and everything associated with that, and then you had, in each of those instances, in 1862/63, 1902 – ’04, 1942 – 44, you had a very significant shift, in that drought cycle and, a few years of very copious amounts of precipitation.
Then you had the same thing in the 1970s where California had its worst drought in ’76-‘77 and that continued to plague it until 1981. Then during the 1982-83 rainy season, so winter time since that’s like a Mediterranean climate, they had the most significant rain they’ve had since records began in ‘82 and ‘83.
So, once again, you had that 40 year cycle showing that 2016 through 2021 would see the final years, the culmination of the drought cycle and… you often see a little bit of parabolic moves going into the culmination of a cycle.
We saw just that intensifying drought and in the case of the West Coast, a lot of wildfires resulting from that, and all of that was projecting a peak in 2021-2022. And again I’ve been discussing and documenting that for 6-7 years now, so it’s not just saying it now. In October of last year, when most of the mainstream weather people were saying “another year of drought…it’s gonna increase…we just don’t know what to do’ – I published several successive newsletters where I explained why there was this just incredible synergy of all different cycles coming into play during the 2022-23 winter rainy season and even next year the 2023-24 rainy season.
All my work, including this 40 year cycle of drought…everything was so precisely coming together that was saying we should see a major shift in precipitation and that California and the West Coast and moving inland from there, should see a very wet rainy season this year. You can look at anything from 80 year cycles, in droughts and precipitation… 40 years… go back to 1862 was the great flood of where California, Nevada, and Oregon had their the greatest flood in recorded history. And 1902 – ‘04 had similar, 1942 had similar, 1982-83 – the greatest rainy years. But you also had a very consistent 6 year cycle that had been playing out, in recent years, for California and the West Coast. And the most recent was in 2017, prior to that 2011, prior to that 2005, where you had rainy years. And they were all pointing to 2023 as being the next phase in that.
Then there was an 11 – 12 year cycle that is very closely linked to the solar sunspot cycle and there’s reasons that I explained why I thought that was also having an influence on that – but I won’t get into that right here. Looking back over the last couple generations in 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, ’86, ’98, and 2011 were some of the biggest wet years on the West Coast and 2022-2023 was the next in that cycle.
So it was every one of the cycles that I’ve been watching, where this particular topic is concerned, were all saying that this past winter, the one that we’re culminating now, and the coming winter, when I even think we could probably see an El Nino kick in, we’re going to seriously reverse what the West Coast has been seeing for many years. And we’re now awaiting our either 11th or 12th atmospheric river getting ready to slam the state and I think it’s a pretty safe conclusion that those cycles have landed and really timed this change with pretty close precision.” [End of interview clip]
Why Were ‘Flood Cycles’ Forecast to Return in 2023 & 2024? The following excerpt explains…
October 2022 – “Based on analysis of a consistent 6-Year Cycle, a Sunspot-related 11 – 12-Year Cycle and a ~40-Year Cycle, I expect California and other parts of the West to see an abrupt turnaround in precipitation during the 2022-23 & 2023-24 rainy seasons (’water years’).
In recent decades, heavy rain years arrived in 2017 (highest total since records began), 2011, 2005, 1998, & 1993. 6, 12, 18, 24 & 30 years from those spikes pinpoint 2022/23 as a prime candidate for increased precipitation – based on a 6-Year Cycle.
Looking back over the past ~80 years, the water years of 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, 1986, 1998 & 2011 produced surges in precipitation – averaging about 35% above the annual average amount.
2022/23 & 2023/24 are the next phase in this ~11/12-Year Cycle.
That is also when a 40-Year Cycle comes back into play – linked to increased rainfall in the early1900’s, early-1940’s & early-1980’s, following extreme dry years in each of the preceding decades.
Following the 1976 year of extreme drought, 1982 – 83 saw consecutive water years of extreme precipitation – combining to create the greatest 2-year period of rain since records began in the late1890’s.
Could 2022/23 or 2023/24 repeat this pattern and perpetuate that 40-Year Cycle?
Related El Nino cycles focus on 2023/24 for another chance for increased precipitation… based on cycle analysis…
While most meteorologists are forecasting another intensifying year of drought in the West (for the 2022/23 rainy season), INSIIDE Track is reiterating ongoing analysis for a dramatic shift to Deluge Cycles this winter. Flooding will be the bigger concern!
The water years of 2022/23 & 2023/24 are forecast to bring a substantial increase in precipitation… just as in 1982 & 1983.. just as in 1942 – 1944… just as in 1902 – 1904… and just as in 1862 – 1864… each time following 5 – 10 year periods of major drought. Get your umbrellas ready!…
2022/23 was/is projected to usher in Deluge Cycles with California forecast to see a repeat of 1982/83 (40 years prior) – when it experienced the two rainiest years since record keeping began. It is linked (by the 40-Year Cycle) to years of multiple extreme or record North American/US floods in 1942 – 1944, 1902 – 1904 and even 1862 (- 1864) – the year of ‘The Great Flood of 1862’.
That was the largest flood to hit CA/NV/OR in recorded history.
The outlook for the next two ‘water years’ or ‘rainy years’ in 2022/23 & 2023/24 remains that the Western US should see copious amounts of precipitation… despite the dire drought predictions from all the ‘experts’…
Just as INSIIDE Track was accurately forecasting inflation for 2020 – 2022 – in contrast to what the Fed and economists were fearing in 2020 (deflation) – flooding (not drought) and topsoil erosion is likely to become a bigger concern in 2023 – 2024.
That is the same time Solar Cycles and Volcano Swarm Cycles collide – portending natural based upheaval in our world. Also linked to these Natural and Solar-based cycles, a major solar storm is also projected for 2023 (and potentially 2024). It’s All Connected!”
— 40-Year Cycle – Drought to Deluge in 2022/23 (INSIIDE Track)
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/40-Year-Cycle-Climate-Drought-Deluge.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/40-Year-Cycle-Drought-to-Deluge-in-2023.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/Outlook-2023-The-Year-of-Disruptions.pdf
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.