Transports “Casting Shadows Ahead’: Confirm Late-April/Early-May Cycle High & Project Overall Correction into Aug./Sept. ’19. Aug. ’19 Danger Period in Focus.
05/30/19 INSIIDE Track – “Equity markets rallied into late-April/early-May, fulfilling the outlook since the late-Dec. lows and setting the stage for a new decline from May into Aug./Sept. 2019…
Stock indexes are fulfilling projections for 2019 to begin with a rally into May – with certain stocks and indexes expected to spike to new highs while others peak just below their highs – and a subsequent correction from May into Aug./Sept. 2019.
Last month’s issue explained how weekly cycles in several indexes were corroborating that overall outlook and pinpointing the time for a peak – on April 29 – May 3. That is exactly when the majority of indexes peaked. Leading them again, however, were the Transports – peaking the prior week (on April 24) and generating a multi-week sell signal on April 26.
Their April 24 peak, as described last month, came 4 months (120 degrees) from its Dec. 24 low, completing a ~2-month/~60-degree low-high-(high) Cycle Progression In the process. The Transports then escalated that April 26 sell signal by turning their weekly trend down on May 24 – a decisive confirmation signal that sets the stage for an early-June rebound before another sell-off is expected…
More importantly, it would powerfully corroborate the outlook for an overall correction from late-April/early-May into Aug./Sept. 2019. That (expected) 3Q ’19 low is the latest phase in a 2-year and 4-year cycle that has been discussed since 2017. It timed the 2007 peak and then began timing subsequent lows – usually multi-quarter lows – following sharp declines.
In 3Q 2017, the intervening 2-year cycle was forecast to time an interim low and spur a rally into early-2018. That low arrived on schedule and projected a corresponding low 2 years in the future (~2-year low-low-low Cycle Progression) – in 3Q ‘19.
The last two phases of the 4-year cycle timed the May – Oct. 2011 sell-off and the May – Aug. 2015 decline. Prior to the sharp decline in 4Q ’18, those 2011 and 2015 sell-offs were two of the sharpest of the past decade.
Will May – Aug./Sept. 2019 see anything similar?
The biggest yellow flag remains the NYSE, particularly since that is an index that incorporates over 2,000 common stocks. As a result, it gives a broader and more encompassing assessment of the overall equity markets. It led the way down in 2018 and is poised to do the same in 2019.
The NYSE (like others) turned its monthly trend down in Dec. and then rebounded long enough to generate two neutral signals against that monthly downtrend, as of April 30. That coincided with the fulfillment of a 15 – 16 month low-low-high-high-high-high Cycle Progression that projected a multi-month peak in April/May 2019 – 15 – 16 months from its (still) record peak of Jan. 2018.
It needs a weekly close below 12,480 to turn its weekly trend down and confirm a multi-month peak.”
Stocks casting shadows ahead, with May ’19 sell-off corroborating outlook for Aug. ‘19. Initial decline culminating as 40-Year Cycle & 4-Year Cycle project increasing trouble in/around Aug. ‘19. Intra-year trend support, in primary indexes, maintains underlying resilience (for now). Multiple indicators intensifying the focus on Aug. ’19 for a sharp sell-off that could resemble Aug. 2015!. Why is 3Q ’19 so dangerous?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.