Turkey/Ottoman Cycles on Track
Turkey/Ottoman Cycles on Track.
2019 = Major Collision of Cycles!
Oil Markets Concur – Watch 3Q 2017.
Feb. 2017 INSIIDE Track – Outlook 2017-2018 — Gateway(s)
01-30-17 – It is impossible to conduct a thorough analysis of the Middle East without discussing the Gateway to the Middle East. In the past, I have described the same entity as the Gateway to Europe – keeping one foot in Europe and one in the Middle East… with divided loyalties & alliances.
It is the nation that is a member of NATO – and therefore privy to NATO’s military secrets & operations – and the same nation that is repeatedly rebuffed when applying for inclusion in the European Union. In that respect, the fault does not lie with Turkey. They have been dragged along for many years… but who is to say how long that lasts and how long they return, with hat in hand. Sooner or later, they will give up.
This is a big problem, just waiting to happen. Before examining some eye-opening cycles for the nation of Turkey, let’s seque back to Europe for a minute and look at another potential challenge for the coming years…
Now let’s see… If you were a financial operation, who had a history of repeated financial challenges for the past 1,000 years, would you want to repeatedly offend your accountant… or someone that was working with your accountant?
That doesn’t seem to be the most prudent approach to foster your financial livelihood. Either you would appease your accountant… or find a new one (and make sure to choose a tactful & diplomatic way to part ways with the original one).
The worst-case scenario – and the most foolish approach – would be to take a half-hearted approach in which you leave yourself very vulnerable while continually alienating a potential antagonist.
Now, let’s apply that analogy. If you are a continent that has been plagued by military conflict for the majority of the last millennium, would you want to continually play games with the soon-to-be most populous Eurasian nation in NATO (Turkey is poised to overtake Germany with that distinction, at some point in 2017) – a nation that also happens to be 99.8% Muslim.
While Turkey is a secularly-ruled country, there have been multiple attempts at altering that and instituting a more Islamic-centered government. Often, the military becomes the final ‘arbiter’ in those disputes.
Maybe that will continue to be the case and everything will remain stable in Turkey. After all, Turkey needs NATO as much as NATO needs Turkey. Case in point, Turkey is the nation that is responsible for 4 of the 5 times Article 4 has been invoked within NATO.
[Before delving into cycles impacting Turkey, it is important to review a key one that applies to NATO… the ‘Cycle of Kings’ AKA the ‘Cycle of Man’s Governments’ AKA the 70-Year Cycle.
NATO was founded in April 1949.
NATO will complete its 70th year in April 2019.
As described many times before, that 70-Year Cycle is the most significant with regard to governing bodies and/or leaders. Is it any surprise that its 70th birthday will arrive just before another Date of Aggression? The last time NATO expanded was on its 60th birthday – in April 2009.]
But, a not-so-funny thing happened on the way to Utopia… part of the military – while contending that Turkey’s government had lost its democratic rule & suffered a serious erosion of its secularism – attempted a coup d’état on July 15, 2016.
This time, the military lost… or at least that faction of the military (allegedly tied to a Muslim cleric living in exile in Pennsylvania). In the ~6 months since then, Turkey has seen a military, political & social purging that would make anything currently unfolding in the U.S. look like child’s play.
With one stone, that has taken out multiple ‘birds’. It has resulted in a dramatic brain drain from Turkey – as thousands look for refuge & employment outside the country. And, it has exponentially increased the power of the government, moving forward. Like so many events, the initial direct consequences are being morphed by all of the ensuing, unintended consequences.”
[See Feb. 2017 INSIIDE Track for remainder of discussion, including an uncanny 40-Year Cycle that has governed that nation since the founding of the Ottoman Empire in 1299. Related Middle East cycles – intensifying in Sept. 2017–Sept. 2018 – should time escalation of troubles for/with Turkey. Energy Complex cycles – that turn more bullish after mid-2017 – could corroborate.]
Projected bottoming phase in Crude coincided with multiple Middle East Cycles – expected to collide between Sept. 2017 and late-2019 (the overlap of all of these cycles). Watch Sept. 2017 for early stage of new bull market in Crude, even though low could take hold before then. Gold & Silver cycles are similar.