War Cycles Intensify in June ’25 as Stock Indexes & Gold Shares Signal Surges.
05-29-25 – Outlook 2025 – War Cycles & White Metals
Whether or not there is any direct correlation between the two, the middle half of 2025 (~April – Oct ‘25) has been projected to time major shifts in both War Cycles and cycles impacting ‘white metals’. The month of April ushered in that period and the month of May provided some powerful (initial) validation.
Addressing the latter first, ‘white metals’ is the general term used to describe white metals… those that are not golden or copper. Most notably, it refers to Silver, Platinum & Palladium (all of which appear more silver than white… but what’s in a name?!?).
Since December ‘24, Silver was described as having one major criterion that needed to be fulfilled in order to signal a low…
It needed to drop below its Dec ‘24 low and ideally test ~27.60/SI – where its ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support resided.
[That is an Elliott Wave term used to describe the low that precedes a final, wave ‘5’ rally in a particular trend. In Silver, that was the early-Aug ‘24 low that preceded the wave ‘5’ rally into late-Oct ‘24.]
A drop to ~27.60/SI would fulfill the downside objectives for the larger-magnitude wave ‘IV’ decline and usher in the time for a wave ‘V’ advance.
Not only did Silver fulfill that precise downside price objective, it fulfilled a primary (related) timing objective by lasting the same duration as the ~22-week correction that was identified as wave ‘II’.
This type of corrective wave symmetry added credibility to multi-week & multi-month cycles that bottomed in early-April and that projected – and are still projecting – a major Silver advance from early-April ‘25 into April/May ‘26.
The first half of that was forecast to be a sharp rally from early-April into Oct/Nov ‘25. And the initial phase of that first half was/is likely to be a strong rally from early-April into mid-June ‘25.
Golden Opportunity
At the same time Silver was fulfilling its downside objective – and simultaneously reinforcing the 90/10 Rule of Cycles by completing that sharp sell-off in a ~2-week period – Platinum & Palladium were also fulfilling analysis for a final spike low in early-April – that would create a ‘golden opportunity’ to enter long positions in Platinum.
As detailed in the April ‘25 INSIIDE Track (see page 7 for larger excerpt)…
3-30-25 – “This could be one of the ‘golden’ (or is that ‘platinum’) trading opportunities of 2025!… Platinum is on the cusp of turning its monthly 21 High MAC up… for the first time since October ‘23… a very bullish confirmation signal that would likely reverberate for 6 – 12 months to follow.
On a broader basis, Platinum could rally into 2026 – a 50% rebound in time (12 years down/6 years up) and the latest phase of a ~5-year high (2011) – high (2016) – high (2021) – (high; 2026) Cycle Progression that parallels the Silver outlook… it is a good place for traders to be adding to long positions…
Palladium remains above its August ‘24 low and in a constructive weekly trend pattern. It initially surged into late-January and turned its weekly trend up – a lagging indicator that often times an initial high and spurs a multi-week reactive sell-off…
Its weekly 21 MAC is also nearing the time (April 7 – 11, ‘25) when a reversal higher would become much easier to achieve… That is due to the falling – but inversely-correlated – weekly 21 MARC during the current 3-week period.
On a longer-term basis, Palladium is expected to enter a new bull market in 2025 and stretch that into 3Q 2026 – when the next multi-year peak appears most likely.” — April ’25 (3/30/25) INSIIDE Track
Platinum & Palladium also spiked lower into April 7th and reversed higher, with their weekly 21 MACs reversing higher in the weeks that followed. In early-May, Platinum generated an outside-week/2 Close Reversal Combo buy signal – validating that cycle low and projecting a sharper rally to follow.
After an initial surge (into late-April) and wave ‘2’ pullback (into mid-May), Platinum triggered a convincing 2 Close Reversal Combo buy signal on May 15th – signaling the onset of wave ‘iii’ of ‘3’ to the upside (see April & May ‘25 Weekly Re-Lays for related details and analysis).
That was soon corroborated by the weekly 21 MAC confirmation signal (a weekly close above the now-ascending weekly 21 High MAC) triggered at the end of that week. The April & May signals helped catapult Platinum to its highest level in over a year. More specific analysis can be found in the respective section for Platinum.
War Cycles
All of this begs the question, ‘Does the outlook for these white metals have anything to do with the culmination of War Cycles during the same period?’
As described for over a decade, late-2021 – late-2025 was pinpointed as the next phase of an uncanny 80-Year Cycle of War that timed major conflicts in the US – since its founding – and coinciding conflicts in Europe, dating back to the 1200’s.
The globe is now entering the culmination of that 80-Year Cycle… the time within a cycle when the most dramatic events often occur (not always… but sometimes).
One need only look at the preceding phase of that 80-Year Cycle – and its culmination in April – October 1945 – to see a prime example of this principle (similar to 90/10 Rule of Cycles). Early-August ‘25 will be one period to monitor closely – a full 80 years from dramatic global/war events…
Equities fulfilled 17-Year Cycle analysis, projecting a 20 – 30% decline from decisive cycle highs. The early-April ‘25 lows are now pivotal support for the 6 – 12 month & 1 – 2-year trends and projected rallies to new highs in some indexes…
Stock Indices have rallied sharply from their early-April ’25 lows – lows that fulfilled a myriad of cycles and downside wave & price targets – including the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks & Sell-offs (of 20 – 30% or more). They also fulfilled multiple indicators that projected subsequent multi-month rallies.
The multi-month lows set in April ‘25 fulfilled the convergence of diverse cycles & Cycle Progressions that included an 18/19-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression, related ~2-Year Cycles, and annual cycles that timed repeated multi-month lows. One of the related monthly cycles is worth reviewing in the context of culminating War Cycles.
The S+P 500 (and many related stocks) perpetuated the nearly-ubiquitous ~8-month cycle in equities (the same cycle that timed a series of highs in the S+P Midcap, culminating on Nov 22/25, ’24 and projecting a 4 – 5-month plunge) and created a symmetrical ~4-month/123d low (Aug 5) – high (Dec 6) – (low; April 4/7th) cycle – bottoming on April 7th…
On a 1 – 2 month basis, stock indexes remain positive after fulfilling the 3 – 6 month outlook for ~20 – 30% declines into early-April. Stocks have since rallied with key indexes capable of retesting their all-time highs and/or stretching this advance into June ’25. The NQ-100 was the first to signal that but other indexes quickly followed…
Gold & Silver have rallied after fulfilling divergent trend and cycle objectives in April ’25. At the time, Silver plunged below its Dec ‘24 low – and right to its early-August ‘24 low (and 4th wave of lesser degree support described since 4Q ‘24… see Oct ‘24 chart reprinted on page 2) – as Gold continued higher into multi-month cycles that converge in late-April/early-May ‘25.
From a timing perspective, Silver set a low in April ’25 – fulfilling broader geometric cycles that include a move of 180 degrees from its Oct ’24 peak and – looking forward – a low that is ~360 degrees prior to major cycles in ~April 2026. All of those factors signaled a likely 3 – 6 month bottom in Silver.
Both metals surged into the middle half of April with Gold initially fulfilling its potential for a 1 – 2 month high on April 14 – 25th – the time when a consistent 23 – 24-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression came back into play. Gold also fulfilled an intra-year pattern that has played out consistently in recent years.
In that annual ~360-degree cycle, Gold has set a multi-week or multi-month peak in the middle part of April – in sync with the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19th) and/or the Date of Aggression (April 19th). Gold also fulfilled the potential for a surge in line with Natural Year ‘opening month’ analysis – portending future strength in 3Q 2025.
In the past month, both metals rallied after selling off into mid-month & bottoming with Gold fulfilling primary expectations for a ‘c’ wave drop that would reach multiple downside targets and the convergence of 3 (out of 4) weekly HLS levels with the most applicable weekly HLS at 3123/GCM (see related Weekly Re-Lays throughout May ‘25).
Gold spiked down to 3123/GCM (attacking that weekly HLS while retracing .618 of its most recent surge) and quickly surged from that level, signaling the likely completion of that ‘a-b-c’ correction.
While dropping precisely to 3123/GCM, Gold also fulfilled a symmetrical ‘c = a’ wave correction – with the ‘c’ wave equaling the ‘a’ wave in both price AND time – a perfect example of wave symmetry within a brief correction.
That low should hold if Gold is to embark on a new multi-month advance. Silver is also confirming its early-April low and is poised to rally (on balance) into June 9 – 16th, the next phase of an ~11-week high-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and midpoint of a related ~22-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
Silver continues to angle its weekly 21 MAC upward and could generate a related bullish signal with a weekly close above ~33.75/SIN.
With Silver perfectly fulfilling its ~4-month outlook – while spiking down to ~27.60/SI on April 7th – it remains in a potentially bullish wave structure that is still expected to spur a new multi-month advance into Oct/Nov ’25 (and ultimately into ~April 2026).
That could be linked to future inflation, global competition for critical metals and minerals, and the tech-related needs of the new economy. The outlook remains that Gold & Silver are in broader bullish trends and their outlook remains positive.
Gold & Silver perpetuated a ~7-year low (4Q ‘01) – low (4Q ‘08) – low (4Q ‘15) – low (4Q ‘22) Cycle Progression in Oct ‘22 and have been projected to undergo a multi-year advance into 2026/2027.
The XAU & HUI surged in April & May after plunging to 1 – 2 month support in early-April and reaffirming the intra-year uptrends. The XAU bottomed at 152.02 on April 7th – quickly reversing higher from its rising weekly 21 AND 40 High MACs (as well as the ‘25 opening range high – resistance turned into support at 152.18/XAU – and the March ’25 low at 152.48/XAU).
The overall uptrend remains solidly intact and is still expected to extend this rally into June ‘25 – the next phase of the XAU’s ~2-month, ~4-month & ~8-month cycles and also the target (June/July) for the intra-year uptrend. A corresponding cycle is a 21 – 22-week high-high-low-low-low-(low; Dec 23 – Jan 3, ’25) Cycle Progression that timed the Dec 30, ’24 low & projected an overall advance into June ’25.
A peak in June ’25 should reinforce the outlook for higher highs – and a more significant peak – in October ’25… 4 months later.
A high in Oct ’25 would also fulfill a ~1-year/~12-month low (Oct ’23) – high (Oct ’24) – (high; Oct ’25) Cycle Progression and a corroborating ~10-month high (April ’23) – low (Feb ’24) – low (Dec ’24) – (high; October ’25) Cycle Sequence. Ultimately, the XAU remains targeted for a retest of its late-2010 peak near 233.00/XAU.
Platinum surged into late-May, reinforcing the overall outlook and turning several confirming indicators positive, including its monthly 21 MAC and its weekly 21 MAC.
The April 5th 2025 Weekly Re-Lay set the stage for this initial 2 – 3 month period when a MAJOR shift in several metals was forecast to take hold.
At that time, Platinum and Palladium entered the month (April 2025) with the greatest chance for a reversal higher and the onset of a new 3 – 6 month and 6 – 12 month accelerated advance. Silver was similar. As stated then:
4-05-25 – “Platinum & Palladium dove to their late-2024 lows after Platinum failed to turn its daily trend up. Both metals have a better chance of seeing key intermediate indicators turn positive in April but that will likely take 2 – 3 weeks before they are in the optimum position for that shift…
On a broader basis, both metals maintain the setup for a much stronger advance in 2025 (into 2026). That would be initially validated if they set lows in the first half of April… Palladium has just matched the duration of its previous ~9-week decline… That sets up April 7th as a pivotal & decisive day.”
Along with Silver, Platinum & Palladium were poised for an April 7th spike low and the start of a much larger and more significant rally – in line with cyclic & technical analysis for April ’25 – April ’26.
The April 7 – 11th action fulfilled downside objectives – particularly in Silver – completing multi-month declines and quickly generated convincing buy signals. The April 9, ’25 Alert stated:
4-09-25 – “Gold & Silver sold off with Silver finally fulfilling what it signaled in Dec ’24… Silver was expected to find its most significant support near 27.60/SIK – 4th wave of lesser degree support – and likely set a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom near that level… the downside target that has been described since the late-October ’24 peak.
Silver reached 27.54/SIK on April 7th – fulfilling these major downside targets – and now has a very good chance of beginning a new wave higher…
Silver fulfilled the outlook to mirror the duration of its largest previous decline (22 – 23 weeks) and set the stage for a major low in April 2025 – 180 degrees from its Oct ’24 peak and ~360 degrees prior to major cycles that peak in ~April 2026.”
The April 12, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay elaborated on those forecasts for early-April ’25 lows and updated corresponding Platinum & Palladium analysis:
4-12-25 – “Gold & Silver bottomed immediately after Silver fulfilled what it signaled in Dec ’24… Silver spiked down to 27.54/SIK – fulfilling all of its 2 – 4 week, 1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month downside objectives – and immediately reversed higher…
Platinum & Palladium spiked to new intra-year lows… while validating timing indicators focused on April 7th for a low. In sync with intermediate cycles, the ideal scenario was that they set lows in the first half of April.”
Platinum has surged since its April 7th low… and is likely in only the early stages of a major advance. On a broader basis, Platinum could rally into 2026 – a 50% rebound in time (12 years down/6 years up) and the latest phase of a ~5-year high (2011) – high (2016) – high (2021) – (high; 2026) Cycle Progression that parallels the Silver outlook.
Palladium has also rallied since its April 7th low and was able to turn the weekly 21 MAC up. However, it still needs a weekly close above 1015/PAU to close above the weekly 21 High MAC and above its ~2-month high. Until that occurs, Palladium is in congestion – a little above multi-year lows.
On a longer-term basis, Palladium was/is expected to enter a new bull market in 2025 and stretch that into 3Q 2026 – when the next multi-year peak appears most likely.
A peak in 3Q ‘26 would fulfill a ~5.25-year low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression as well as a .618 rebound in time (39-month decline followed by 24-month rally).” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are powerfully reinforcing analysis for surges to new all-time highs after confirming multi-month bottoms in early-April ’25 – when the culmination of 20 – 30+% plunges was forecast… and when it ultimately took hold. At the time, they fulfilled major 1 – 2-year downside price targets and related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025 – reinforcing that a decisive bottom was taking hold.
Their monthly trend patterns, monthly 21 MACs & MARCs, monthly (and weekly) cycles, monthly downside objectives & 6 – 12 month support levels all argue for powerful rallies that catapult key indexes up to new all-time highs in the coming months. The multi-year wave structure is arguing for the same.
Metals are corroborating that outlook as Silver (along with Platinum & Palladium) fulfilled ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April, triggering convincing buy signals that were followed by powerful surges. Mid-May ’25 triggered another wave of bullish signals, reinforcing related analysis for new surges in the XAU & HUI (into mid-June and ultimately early-August).
What Wave Structure Projects Rallies to New All-Time Highs?
How High Should Surge From Early-April Cycle Lows Reach?
Why Does Projected Silver/White Metals’/XAU Surge Corroborate?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.