War Cycles Portend Russia/China Alliance; Bonds’ Negative into 3Q ‘22.
Outlook 2022/2023 – Cause & Effect?
03-30-22 – One of the underlying factors involved in the dramatic events of March 2020 – March 2022 (a period of two ‘Natural Years’) is the developing Solar Cycle. As documented many times before, there has been an uncanny sequence of related events on a roughly 11-Year Cycle basis – the same cycle that governs the ebb and flow of sunspots and solar storms.
In the March ‘19 INSIIDE Track, this cycle was again examined and was used to forecast a new ‘Global-Shaping Event’ that would emerge in late-2019/early-2020 and lead to a ‘Stock Panic’ in early-2020.
It is easy to now see that global shaping event, which triggered a major stock panic, was Covid-19.
It is the other part of that conversation, however, that is now coming to fruition. In that analysis, INSIIDE Track discussed how the initial economic events of that ~11-Year Cycle were often and increasingly leading to military conflicts in the ensuing years.
More importantly, from a longer-term perspective, that analysis concluded that each phase was pushing Russia and China closer together with an ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’ mentality even as the global order was going through consistent upheaval within 2 – 3 years of the initial 11-Year Cycle event.
~11-Year Cycle of Stock Panics
In 1987, rising interest rates led to a global stock crash. 2 – 3 years later, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait triggered the Persian Gulf War and shifted or solidified the global order.
In 1997 & 1998, the Asian Financial Crisis was followed by the Russian Ruble Crisis and soon followed by the events of 9/11, which shifted or solidified the global order.
In 2008 – 2009, the subprime triggered real estate and stock market meltdown was soon followed by the Arab Spring that shifted or solidified the global order.
In 2019 – 2020, a global-shaping event and stock market panic was projected to usher in War Cycles beginning in late-2021 (and stretching through 2025 – the same time that scientists now project the peak of Solar Cycle 25) – a period of anticipated military conflict that was forecast to push Russia & China closer together and shift or solidify the global order.
The following is an excerpt of that analysis, which paved the way for expectations and events from late-2019 into 2022 and ultimately into late-2025:
02-27-19 – “The Sun has at least three intriguing cycles that repeatedly emerge in the markets, in geopolitics, in military conflict, and in most aspects of life. The biggest (of these three, although there are also longer-term cycles as well) is the ~40-Year Cycle of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun…a total circuit would take roughly 80 years (perfectly coinciding with the 80-Year Cycle of War that comes back into play in 2021…
Cause and Effect
Perhaps the best-known solar cycle is the one that governs the ebb and flow of sunspots or solar storms. It is an ~11-Year Cycle (averages out to 11.2 years) that has an uncanny knack for also linking monetary and military events of cause and effect.
Perhaps a better way of describing that would be the Cycle of Unintended Consequence. Events during one phase of this cycle often have a distinct and irrefutable link to events during the next phase. In many cases, those phases also link similar players or similar events. (I have often documented an overlapping 11- Year Cycle that… recurs in 2021/2022.)
Most recently, the last two phases began with the events of 1997 – 1998 (11 years after the stock market crash of 1987) when the economic world was rocked by a pair of crises – the Asian Financial Crisis and the Russian Ruble Crisis – in 1997 & 1998.
US & Western stock markets were able to mount a final surge before a worldwide stock malaise took hold in 2000 – 2002. However, it was 11 years after the events of 1997 – 1998, in 2008 – 2009, when a larger global collapse ensued.
As time has unfolded, it has become clear that the Western financial and economic collapse of 2008/2009 drove countries like China & Russia into closer cooperation with one another, as an alternative to the US & Europe… This cycle comes back into play in 2019 – 2020 and is likely to perpetuate/foster that alignment.
East vs West
One of the reasons for addressing these synergistic cycles is to highlight the recent phases and how they have timed this dramatic evolution of powerful (antagonistic) competitors to US/Europe. First, there was WWII in which the US & USSR fought against Germany and Japan (who had invaded China, loosely aligning China & USSR).
11 years later, it was the Korean Conflict coming on the heels of the Chinese Civil War. The US/UN were ultimately pitted against the Soviets and Chinese – a division that is back in vogue now…
In the early-1960’s (see 1963 – 1964 phase), the US was pushed to the brink of war with the USSR over the Cuban Missile Crisis (late-’62) a little before the Gulf of Tonkin incident – the escalator of US involvement in Viet Nam. Ultimately, it was China & the USSR on the side of N. Viet Nam.
The next two phases saw similar events (including those related to Nixon and to the rise of major economic reforms in China) but it wasn’t until the 1997 – 1998 & 2008 – 2009 phases – of this particular ~11-Year Cycle – that economic events pushed both nations to the edge of a financial abyss… and led to the developments in recent years.”
~11-Year Cycle of Stock Panics
As stated back then, this equity panic was expected to usher in War Cycles in late-2021 and extend into 2025 – with Russia and China being spurred into an alliance of convenience. The events of Nov ’21 – Mar ’22 have powerfully validated that… but are likely only the first conflict in this very tenuous cycle.
Solar & Earth-Based Instability
Those War Cycles were forecast to coincide with (and be very closely linked to) a surprisingly disruptive Solar Cycle (#25) from late-2019 into 2025 – leading to intensifying earth instability in the form of earthquakes and then volcanoes.
As described for several years, 2021/2022 was the time when Earthquake Swarm Cycles had their greatest synergy while 2022 – 2024 was when Volcano Swarm Cycles converged.
40-Year Cycles
While there are always volcanoes erupting (or in an eruptive phase) at some point around the globe, these cycles focus on the times when a larger swarm of more significant eruptions occur.
The coming years (2022 – 2025) are when several longer-term Volcanic Swarm Cycles overlap, including a 40-Year, 70-Year, 80-Year and 120-Year Cycle. The following is just a small sampling of the volcanoes included in the 40-Year Cycle analysis:
1980 – 1985 – Mt. St. Helens (1980 – Washington, USA), Nevado del Ruiz (1985 – Colombia; 4th deadliest); El Chicon (1982 – Mexico)
1940 – 1945 – Tavurvur (1941/42), Santorini (1939 – 1941), Mauna Loa (Apr 26, 1942), Paricutin (1943 – Mexico; 9 – 10 year active phase), Vesuvius (1944), Ruapehu (1945 – New Zealand)
1900 – 1905 = Mt. Pelee (1902 – Martinique, 3rd deadliest in history), Santa Maria (1902 – Guatemala), Soufriere (1902), Grimsvotn (1903 – Iceland).
1860 – 1865 – Katla (1860 – Iceland), Maklan (1861 – Indonesia), Dubbi (1861 – Africa; largest known eruption in Africa… 1862 = Cold Summer in N Hemisphere), Etna (1863 – Italy),
That cycle actually flows back to 1660 – 1665 and will be elaborated in the future. For now, there is one other ’cycle’ that often impacts volcanic activity. It is an annual cycle that has been described before… and returns in April/May ’22. Stay tuned…
Stock Indices are adhering to the outlook for 2022, first peaking in early-Jan ‘22 and suffering a sharp 1 – 2 month sell-off (fulfilling the 2-Year, 8-Month, 4-Month & 2-Month Cycle analyses) before setting divergent lows in Feb & Mar ‘22.
All of the indexes sold off into Feb 23/24, perpetuating a ~1-month/~30 degree cycle that has timed the lows in 75% of the 8 months leading up to that…
The first month of that Natural Year is a decisive time… If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox (March 20), the first month of that year would end on April 19/20th. It would be the ‘opening range’ for that Natural Year; a pivotal and determining factor for the ensuing intra-year trend.
Why?
The Sun governs our seasons (and a good part of our lives), which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. This has been true in agrarian (farming-based) societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun (and established their calendars based on that focus) – much of which is still prevalent in our calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death; see verse on page 1). Is it any surprise that the latest war was triggered as soon as the Earth was conducive to a massive ground invasion?
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year. This is similar to how I treat the first 3 weeks – and month – of the calendar year, the first 3 trading days of each month, and the first day of the week.
Once that opening range (first 30 days) of the Natural Year is complete, you have resistance and support for the entire 12-month period – when the market is trading in that range AND once it has broken out of it.
You also have an important gauge of trend for that year (if the market is trading above that range, it is in an uptrend on an intra-year basis, if it is trading below that range, it is in an intra-year downtrend, etc.). This applies to all markets, not just equities.
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago since the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. And this first month was pivotal. Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – from March 20/21 to April 19/20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is a time to watch each year for signs of ‘change’.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. As I have discussed for the past three decades, that time (surrounding April 19) is what I term the Date of Aggression – when significant attacks, battles, conflicts and wars have often occurred.
Corroborating that in 2022 is the fact that many weekly & monthly cycles are converging in the stock market AND in precious metals on April 18 – 22, ’22 and portending an important peak.
If that is fulfilled, those highs would take on even greater significance due to their role within the opening range of the Natural Year… and the link to the Date of Aggression.
Recent years provide some useful examples… From a market perspective, the year of 2020 provided perfect fulfillment of this Natural Year shift with the entire stock market, most metals, and many commodities bottoming on March 18 – 23, 2020 and beginning new bull markets from there.
That was due to the synergy of many corresponding and corroborating cycles and timing indicators all projecting the same thing. In 2022, the 2-Year Cycle has been expected to help spur an initial rally into mid-to-late-April ‘22. (That is very similar to 2016 – similarly linked to the 2-Year Cycle – when stocks bottomed in Feb ’16 and rallied into April 20 ’16… see charts.)
In 2021, stocks began a second intra-year rally in late-March and the originating lows became pivotal support that was tested multiple times in some indexes (like DJTA & Russell 2000). Since it held, the intra (Natural)-year trend ultimately turned up and projected additional upside.
In 2022, stocks are poised to complete an initial advance around April 18 – 22 and enter a new period of consolidation. Part of that is due to a consistent 14 – 15 week low-low-low-high Cycle Progression, dating back to March ’21, that portends a peak on April 11 – 22. In the case of the DJTA, a 50% rebound in time (16 weeks down/8 weeks up) would also culminate (peak) on April 18 – 22, ’22 and perpetuate a ~5.5-month (5.25 – 5.75 months or 22 – 24 weeks) high-high cycle that has timed 6 consecutive peaks…
Bonds & Notes continue to fulfill the 1 – 2 year outlook (and the 3 – 5 year outlook since mid-2020) as well as the overall outlook for 2022… The next 3 – 6 month peak is still expected in July ’22, in line with a ~1-year high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of the 4-Year Cycle Progression that helped time the July ’20 peak.
The Bond peak in July ’20 perpetuated an uncanny 4-Year Cycle that timed multi-year highs in July ‘12 & July ‘16 and preceding lows in mid-2004 and mid-2008. That cycle projected that interest rates would slowly rise (and Bonds fall) in 3Q ‘20 – 3Q 2022, possibly extending into 2023. An intervening (lower) peak in July ‘22 – at the midpoint of that cycle – would corroborate it and reinforce the overall outlook.
On a multi-year basis, Bonds & Notes have now exceeded the magnitudes of their 2016 – 2018 declines – adding another level of validation to the outlook for a bear market from mid-2020 into 2023.
Longer-term investors and hedgers could have liquidated long positions in Bonds & Notes in 3Q ‘20 and have sold intermediate rallies in 3Q/4Q ‘20 and then added to short positions in Aug ‘21, in sync with trading strategies described in INSIIDE Track. 3 – 6 month traders can [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Bonds & Notes remain on track for a convincing decline into ~3Q ’22 (1/2 of 4-Year Cycle; with Oct ’22 representing a 4-year low-low cycle)… and ultimately into at least 1Q ’23. Equity markets are validating analysis for a multi-week, multi-month (possibly multi-year) peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a major decline… reinforced with several indexes fulfilling multi-year upside price targets (‘5th of 5th of 5th wave’ peaks) in Nov ‘21.
That projects significant declines back to multiple levels of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support. The next significant sell-off in stocks AND precious metals is expected after intervening peaks on April 18 – 22, ’22. ‘Crash Cycles’ also recur in 2022/23 (a ~7-Year Cycle that last timed sell-offs and lows in 2001/02, 2008/09 & 2015/16). Inflation has been forecast to see a second surge into 2022 with Bonds, Notes and Stock Indexes poised to drop in response.
2021/2022 was expected to usher in a dramatic shift in multi-decade cycles (40-Year & 80-Year Cycles) – timing everything from now-validated War Cycles (late-2021 into late-2025), Drought Cycles peak in 2021/22 and shift to Deluge Cycles in 2022/23, Agriculture Cycles (80-Year Cycle shifts in 2022/23), Currency Wars (2021)… and Interest Rates.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.