Wheat Poised for Surge to 1125, 1335/W in 2022; 90/10 Rule of Cycles Intact!
Outlook 2022/2023 – Parallels
11-29-21 – History rhymes; it does not repeat. The same mistakes might be made (’those who do not learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them’) but the actual events are different… often dramatically so. That does not, however, change the overall principles, cycles, or societal shifts that take place at key intervals.
I stress that principle to preface the following postulation. This conjecture is not implying that the same things – or even close to the same things – are likely to unfold. It is only conveying that some similarities or parallels are expected… and are already unfolding.
Sabbath of Sabbaths
A cycle of 49 – 50 years has been discussed before. Its origin dates back to (at least) the Old Testament and the book of Leviticus when Israel was being given a set of parameters for how to govern the land they were entering. One of the primary ‘rules’ had to do with agriculture and the principle of allowing the land to ‘rest’ during each 7th year.
That principle has been revered and applied right to the present day (in forms of organic farming) and provides the soil the necessary time to replenish depleted minerals and related elements. That principle extends beyond just agriculture.
After 7 of those 7-year periods, an additional year of ‘rest’ was necessary – a year of Jubilee – for the nutrients in the land and soil to replenish more thoroughly before being farmed again. The 49th and 50th years were critical and were when that principle of ‘jubilee’ was exercised – in society (debt, etc.) as well.
That 49-year (and 50-year) cycle has been evident in many markets. Two prime examples – that are actually not in precise sync with each other – involve the US Dollar Index (versus other currencies) and Gold (versus the US Dollar). More on those in a minute…
1973 – 1974 Redux?
The discussion of this 49 – 50 year cycle is laying the foundation for a related discussion – hypothesizing that 2022 – 2023 could possess some similarities (rhyme… NOT repeat) to 1973 – 1974. Several major events of 1973 – 1974 already possess potential parallels setting up for 2022 – 2023…
Stock Sell-off
With the culmination of multiple long-term cycles in 2022 – including a 40-year low (1942) – low (1982) – high? (2022) Cycle Progression – the stage is set for a significant stock sell-off. The 7-Year Cycle of Stock Crashes (20 – 35% or greater declines that culminated in 2016, 2009, 2002, etc.) recurs in 2023 and creates a 2-year period that could rhyme with 1973 – 74…
Soybeans, Corn & Wheat are mixed with Wheat expected to extend its evolving bull market even after Soybeans & Corn reached major, multi-year upside targets (~1500/S & ~750.0/C) in May/June ’21…
As stated last month, Wheat had signaled a secondary low in Sept. and was expected to initially advance into mid-Nov ’21. That was seen and Wheat – along with Soybeans & Corn – entered corrective phases in late-Nov. That could/should spur intermediate lows in early-Dec. and the onset of a new advance in Wheat.
On a longer-term basis, Wheat remains likely to surge above 950.0/W as part of this unfolding rally. After building a ~4-year base, Wheat’s breakout higher could catapult it to its highest levels since 2008 (when it peaked near 1335/W). It has formed its own range-trading pivot points near 425, 600 and 775/W. The next phase is ~950 (and then 1125/W).”
Wheat is projecting a parabolic move higher over the next 3 – 6 months – while Soybeans & Corn could see final surges, similar to the parabolic advances seen in 1973/1974. This is occurring during the final stage of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought & 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture (~2021) – the time when parabolic moves are most likely (90/10 Rule of Cycles) before a dramatic shift takes hold.
~11-Year, ~40-Year & ~80-Year Cycles collide in 2022 and pinpoint what could be a seismic shift in natural (climate, precipitation, etc.), geopolitical and market cycles at the same time food/commodity inflation cycles culminate. 2022/2023 is expected to produce major disruptions including climate shifts (Drought/Deluge Cycles) and solar storms.
On a 1 – 3 year basis, Corn has a 3-year low (July ‘07) – low (Jun ‘10) – high (July ‘13) – high (June ‘16) – high (May/Jun ‘19) – high (May/June 2022) Cycle Progression – projecting the next 1 – 2 year peak. Wheat has a ~6-year low (‘04) – low (‘10) – low (‘16) – high (2022) Cycle Progression that is reinforced by a ~33-month low (3Q ‘16) – low (2Q ‘19) – high (1Q 2022) Cycle Progression. Soybeans have an ~8-month Cycle Progression that portends a future peak in ~Jan ’22.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.